Wednesday, October 31, 2007

2007-08 NBA Preview

It's almost ridiculous to make NBA predictions with the status of the league's premier scorer in limbo. Will Kobe Bryant be the best player on a Lakers team fighting for the playoffs, or the best player on another team that could contend for the Eastern Conference title. For our sake, we'll imagine that Jerry Buss isn't yet off his rocker enough to deal Bryant for dimes on the dollar. Some are saying it's a done deal, so we reserve the right to revise these predictions if he heads to another squad in the next week.

So we'll keep this short. A couple lines on each team, and we hope to hear from you. It's sometimes hard to talk basketball in Buffalo, but I know I'm down. Dan will be weighing in later with his Western Conference picks, so check back. Without further ado...

It's WGR's 2007-08 NBA Preview, brought to you by Lil' Penny

In no particular order, with predictions to follow...

WESTERN CONFERENCE

DALLAS MAVERICKS —
Nick Mendola: In a sense, they're the Buffalo Sabres of the NBA. Came on real strong a few years back, only to suffer an almost unbelievable early exit in the playoffs. The Mavas should come out on fire after being upset by Golden State in the first round, but look for the division to beat on them a little bit this year, with Houston stealing some wins from both Dallas and San Antonio. Josh Howard (19 points, seven boards per game) could post even bigger numbers as teams continue to key on Dirk Nowitzki.
Dan Hager: I wonder how last years collapse in the playoffs will hurt Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs this season. They added veteran depth in Eddie Jones and Juwan Howard, who was signed two days before opener. With young talent like Josh Howard and Devin Harris continually getting better, look for a successful '07-'08 campaign. Now can they hold up in the post season?

DENVER NUGGETS—
NM:I won't fall into the trap this time, Nuggets. Loved the Iverson acquisition last season, but I'm almost terrified that the honeymoon may be over. Carmelo Anthony's obviously legit, but can Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin be healthy and effective?
DH: Bringing in Allen Iverson last season was very intriguing for all NBA fans, but it was quickly forgotten. The AI/Melo combination has been lackluster to say the least. Maybe its
time to get rid of those jerseys and bring back the ol' mountain tops that Dikembe Mutombo used to sport? Now that was a jersey.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS—
NM: Really, really nice run last year, but there are some pretty good reasons the Warriors were the No. 8 seed. I've always been a big Baron Davis fan, but he needs to stay healthy and be the man almost every single night. Traded Jason Richardson for Brandan Wright, which could be a nice steal down the line.
DH:The Warriors gave their fans quite the
thrill last season, just making the playoffs and then upsetting the top-seeded Mavericks in the first round. Baron Davis will lead another young club this season which features rookie forward Brandan Wright who came to GS in the Jason Richardson deal. GS will need to score a lot of points to contend.

HOUSTON ROCKETS—
NM: Welcome, Rick Adelman, who handled a nice offense during his years in Sacramento. There's still Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, but I don't love Rafer Alston at the point. A lot of young guards, and will Steve Francis stay good on his word to be a role player?
DH: The Rockets have one of the toughest jobs in the NBA -- Staying relevant with the Spurs and Mavs in the same division. The team revolves around often injured Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming but the play of Luther Head and Shane Battier will give the rockets more options. If everyone stays healthy, and it's a big if, then look for the Rockets to move on in the playoffs.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS—
NM: Elton Brand is out until at least February and, quite simply, Tim Thomas is not Elton Brand. They'll still score with Corey Maggette, and Sam Cassell should keep them in line, but another tough season for a franchise that deserves better.
DH:The Clippers are continually getting better as a team but still can not climb out of the basement in the Western Conference. They took a big blow this summer when Elton Brand went down with a torn Achilles which will sideline him for much of the season. Although they have size, the Clip did not bring in anyone to counter Brand's injury, making thing difficult for LA's second team.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS—
NM: Again, it all hinges on Kobe. Do they pick up Gilbert Arenas from Washington? Is it Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas from the Bulls? If he's remotely happy, keeping him is the right pick. He knows how to carry a team in the West, and Andrew Bynum may show what he's about this year.
DH:No one can judge where the Lakers will be at the end of this season with Kobe Bryant trade talks still looming. If the Lakers deal their star they could bring in some exciting talent (Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah) but will it be enough to win NOW in LaLa land? If they keep Kobe anything they will still remain a middle-tier team in the powerful west unless they bring in some help: Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal?

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES—
NM: How new coach Marc Iavaroni convinced Pau Gasol not to demand a trade I don't know. Incredibly tough division, and Mike Conley and Rudy Gay still have a lot of learning to do. Stromile Swift, Darko Milicic and Hakim Warrick on the same team? Where's the draft day footage?
DH: The Griz have a lot of young talent that will begin to mature this season, giving them a chance to contend for a playoff spot. Hakim Warrick (25), Rudy Gay (21) and free agent Darko Milicic (22) will lead the Griz into the West's toughest division and could score some points. Rookie Mike Conley Jr. will be fun to watch leading the point with those three weapons.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES—
NM: I'm a huge Celtics fan, but Al Jefferson and Antoine Walker won't be enough to carry any weight. Jefferson is a viable stud at center, and will post big numbers once he adjusts to the West. Walker's going to do what he does, average 20 while taking way too many threes from way too deep. Corey Brewer (Florida), Randy Foye (Villanova) and Jefferson are a promising young core.
DH: Randy Foye, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green and Corey Brewer will make the T-Wolves a force in years to come. But this season names like Sebastian Telfair and Antoine Walker will only hurt the young talent on this team. Get rid of two of those players and the Wolves look a lot more respectable.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS—
NM: How in the world will Oklahoma City survive without their Hornets? Seriously, though, the Hornets new "fleur-de-bee" logo is my favorite uniform addition in a while. Want to get a rise out of Hager? Tell him Chris Paul's an upstanding citizen and your favorite NBA star.
DH: Another up-and-coming team that will rely on young talent to lead the way. Tyson Chandler needs to continue to improve in the low post coming off his best season as a pro(averaging 9.5 pts and 12.4 rpg) and rookie Julian Wright will need to progress fast for this team to contend for a playoff spot. It won't happen this year.

PHOENIX SUNS—
NM: No one loved the Tim Donaghy scandal more than the Suns, who already felt jobbed in the playoffs before the scandal was revealed. Love the drafting of Alando Tucker (Wisconsin) and D.J. Strawberry (Maryland), and Grant Hill's a good addition to an already elite team.
DH: By far the best team in the conference and maybe the most fun team to watch in the NBA. The fast-paced offense we have become accustom too over the last three seasons will again rule the desert, but will the Suns have the defense and size to get past the Mavs and Spurs? Look for the Suns to come up just short once again.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS—
NM: Going to surprise a lot of people, even without Greg Oden. Good depth with late draft pick-ups Taurean Green (Florida) and Josh McRoberts (Duke). Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge will combine for a lot of wins. Zach Randolph is a loss, but he had to go, and Channing Frye is a nice pick-up in return.
DH: Yeah I know it's a stretch, especially
with the top draft pick (Greg Oden) out for the entire season with a knee injury, but I like what Portland's front office did, drafting Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts to add depth and saving Channing Frye from the New York Knicks to accompany budding star LaMarcus Aldridge. I'm jumping on board with the Blazers and I'm pretty excited!

SACRAMENTO KINGS—
NM: Look, I follow basketball, but I follow the East more because of the Celtics, but when I missed my fantasy draft and the Internet chose Kevin Martin for me very early, I was ashamed at how little I knew about him. Still a big Ron Artest fan in terms of talent, and with Reggie Theus ("Hangtime") coaching, there should be some valuable lessons learned by Artest, in true Saturday morning sitcom fashion. Running the point with a girl still a dubious call, however.
DH: Oh how far the Kings have fallen since
contending in the west in the late 90s. With no scoring threat, an injured Mike Bibby (thumb surgery) and a troubled Ron Artest, things
don't seem to be looking to bright in Sacramento. A deal will need to be done!

SAN ANTONIO SPURS—
NM: Just sat through one of the most lackluster ring ceremony/banner unveilings of all-time before their opener against the Trail Blazers. David Stern could not look less excited that a team-first squad won his league. That said, they've got great depth, stars and coaching, and will probably win the league again.
DH: San Antonio is the class-act of the NBA and again have the talent to win another ring, but how long will it last. The Spurs are aging fast (Duncan 31, Bowen 36, Berry 35, Horry 37, Finley 34, Ginobli 30) and could fall off the ship at any time. But with Tim Duncan leading the way, don't expect that to happen this season.

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS—
NM: Dealt Ray Allen and let Rashard Lewis go to get younger. It'll hurt in the short term, but in Jeff Green (Georgetown) and Kevin Durant (Texas), the Sonics picked up two of the top five talents in the draft. Delonte West is a serviceable guard obtained in the Allen trade, and Luke Ridnour is a quiet contributor.
DH: The Sonics bring a young/inexperienced group into the 2007-08 campaign, beginning in a new era of basketball.
Kevin Durant will give Seattle fans something to watch as the Sonics prepare to leave town but won't be enough for the Sonics to get out of the gutter. Center Robert Swift gets my vote for most likely to get beat up by Avery Johnson? Take a look -http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2416

UTAH JAZZ—
NM: Big question mark on this team. Made a quality run even with a substandard campaign from Andrei Kirilenko. Have both Deron Williams and Dee Brown from those solid Illinois' clubs, and Carlos Boozer is as consistent a rebounder as there is outside of Brand.
DH: In one of the most uninteresting divisions in the NBA, the Jazz should come out on top after last year's run to the conference finals. Losing Derrick Fisher at the point will hurt the offense but look for a big year from Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. The Jazz will win their fair share of games in an otherwise weak division.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Is it weird that most of the cities that start with letters from the top half of the alphabet are out East, while the lower half are out West? This is how I think on a daily basis. Punch me in the face. —NM

ATLANTA HAWKS
NM: I want the Hawks to be good. I like every single player on their roster, and their new red, white and blue duds are pretty cool. Acie Law IV was my favorite college player, and when you throw in Al Horford (Florida), Marvin Williams (UNC), Shelden Williams (Duke), Josh Childress and Joe Johnson, the Hawks will be a lot of fun.
DH: Another team ready to begin a new era. Led by all-star Joe Johnson and up-and-comers Marvin Williams and Josh Childress, the Hawks have the fire power to win. Drafting Acie Law IV and Al Horford will add two threats to a maturing
lineup.

BOSTON CELTICS
NM: Don't get hurt, play well against Toronto, and they'll win the division. Garnett, Pierce and Allen will be too much for most Eastern teams to handle. Three players who have lost enough in the past to work together now. Glen "Big Baby" Davis and James Posey coming off the bench, and Rajon Rondo a solid set-up guy, considering he can't shoot. A little disappointed that they didn't keep Allan Ray so he could be on the same team with Ray Allen, but hooray for me.
DH: You have to be intrigued by the combination of Garnett/Allen/Pierce, but do you have to like it? To many the Celts are the sexy pick to come out of the improving East and they have the scoring power to do so, if they can stay health, and with the lack of depth on the Celtics bench, they'll have to do so, or else.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
NM: The Southeast is surprisingly deep. Jason Richardson will make an immediate impact, despite sacrificing Brandan Wright. Retaining Gerald Wallace was huge, and the Bobcats still have Sean May, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor and Adam Morrison. If you're looking for a team to root for, Charlotte's a good choice.
DH: Signing Gerald Wallace and bringing in Jason Richardson from Golden State begins a new era for the Jordan-led Bobcats. They could be the surprise team of the NBA this season with a deep bench which features a lot of players who had success in college — always a good thing! Adam Morrison's injury could be bigger hit than expected.

CHICAGO BULLS
NM: A scary, almost Western style team. The Marshawn Lynches of basketball, if you will. Were already one of the easy favorites in the East, and then drafted Pitt's 7-footer Aaron Gray, and Joakim Noah (Florida). In rotation with Tyrus Thomas, Ben Wallace and more... Wow. Love Ben Gordon.
DH:Chicago has the size, leadership and most importantly the depth to be a top contender in the East this season, but will have to win in their own division first. A trade for Kobe Bryant, if done right, could put Chicago over the edge. But is it worth the risk? Not if it involves Luol Deng who is set to have a big year, playing for a new contract next season.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
NM: It's still Lebron's team, and that'll be good enough to challenge in the East. Loved the emergence of Daniel Gibson, who's absolutely a player worth watching and rooting for. Didn't have a draft pick, which was weird.
DH: Any team led by a talent like Lebron James is sure to be dangerous. The Cavs still could use a big time talent to counter LBJ and it's proving not to be Larry Hughes, who continues to struggle with injuries. Daniel Gibson will need to continue his fast development. Not having Anderson Varejao (contract issues) will leave a big hole in the post.

DETROIT PISTONS
NM: Same old Pistons will be solid again in the East. Love the drafting of Aaron Afflalo, who could mature into the type of player who could help fill the shoes of Chauncey Billups.
DH:The Pistons dominance over the Central ended last season, but don't expect that to slow down this hungry group of veterans. Re-signing Chauncy Billips was a step in the right direction and he should be a good influence on top-draft pick Rodney Stuckley, whose had a strong summer showing fast improvement. The big question lies in health. Will this aging Detroit lineup be able to play through an entire 82-game season?

INDIANA PACERS
NM: Almost every game they win will be because of Jermaine O'Neal, and he may be dealt. When they play the Sixers, tickets should be free.
DH:Does anyone even care about the Pacers and their yearly antics anymore? Other than Jermaine O'Neal, who is constantly involved in trade rumors, Indy has no one who can take over a game. Once again it's a rebuilding year for the Pacers.

MIAMI HEAT
NM: Still the class of the Southeast. Dealing Antoine Walker was a great move, especially for a conditional first round pick and Ricky Davis. "Ricky Ricky" can play, but needs to check himself down. The keys, of course, are the health of Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.
DH: The Heat might suffer early season losses without Dwyane Wade (shoulder surgery) for the first month or two. Shaq is aging and doesn?t have the energy to lead this team whose only other scoring threat is — believe it or not — Ricky Davis. At least Coach Pat Riley will keep things interesting with cheap play if things aren't going Miami's way.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS
NM: Michael Redd is very good, but the Bucks have had a revolving door around him, which doesn't do him any favors. It'd be nice if Andrew Bogut earned that No. 1 pick status, and I'm still glad to see Julius Hodge in the league. Charlie Villanueva hammered the best dunk I've ever seen in person when he was with Toronto.
DH: With a new head coach and a new threat in the post (1st round pick Yi Jianlian) it's unclear how the Bucks will mesh after an injury plagued 2006-07. Led by Mike Redd, the Bucks will most likely look to run the floor and score points, but will need to step up the defense in order to make a playoff run.

NEW JERSEY NETS
NM: Are we done with the Nets yet? Again, i pull for the Celtics, but there might not be a more over-hyped team in the league. Jason Kidd seems to always be on the block. Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson are good scorers. Their lack of depth is being largely ignored in the media. I hate the Nets.
DH: The Nets added needed size in the off-season and will have the bodies to compete against Garnett in Boston. With no trade rumors circling over Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter, distractions should be limited in the Garden State, which only helps the Nets record.

NEW YORK KNICKS
NM: Zach Randolph to New York. This should work out well. Still don't trust Eddy Curry, and you can root for Stephon Marbury until the cows come home, but the cows will wonder why you're rooting for the Knicks, too. Sorry, Beastie Boys.
DH:The Knicks made a lot of moves this off-season, none bigger than bringing in Zach Randolph from Portland. The inside threat of Randolph and Eddy Curry, who had his best year as a pro in 2007, could be fun to watch, but I'm not buying the
hype. David Lee will be a spark.

ORLANDO MAGIC
NM: Dwight Howard is simply one of the top players in the league, and he'll enjoy the support of Rashard Lewis, even if the Magic seemingly overpaid for him. Loss of Grant Hill will hurt.
DH: The Magic made big strides last season but their youth showed as the losses added up towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Adding Rashard Lewis brings in an outside scorer, taking pressure off a very good center in Dwight Howard. And who doesn't want to root for a team led by the one and only Stan Van Gundy.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
NM: With the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft...
DH: The 76ers are a very young team in the second year of GM Billy King's youth movement. Four draft picks will help both the starting lineup and depth but it won't be enough to win in an improving division. Andre Igudala and Andre Miller will need help but won't get it this year.

TORONTO RAPTORS
NM: The only true challenger to the Celtics in the Atlantic. Chris Bosh is one of the finest players in the NBA, and this Euro-heavy team should use their depth to make a strong playoff push.
DH:The Raptors turned a lot of heads last season by winning the division last season with a core of young talent leading the way. Chris Bosh is becoming a star in the East and Toronto has the young talent around to contend, but lack veteran leadership. Toronto might want to bring in some help inside but it will take some of their young talent in a trade.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS
NM: The Wizards are going to score, and should hang on to Agent Zero. Gilbert Arenas is fun, relatively harmless and, most importantly, clutch. There might not be a star in the league you'd rather have in the closing
DH:Arenas has the ability to take over any game but how long will he be in the capital? (He and coach Eddie Johnson don't mix too well). Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are each big weapons aside Arenas, but are they enough? The Wizards need more from Brendan Heywood in the low post to open up their offense.


NICK'S PREDICTIONS

WEST
1. San Antonio*
2. Phoenix*
3. Dallas
4. Denver*
5. Houston
6. Utah
7. L.A. Lakers
8. Portland
9. Golden State
10. New Orleans
11. L.A. Clippers
12. Sacramento
13. Memphis
14. Seattle
15. Minnesota

EAST
1. Chicago*
2. Boston*
3. Miami*
4. Detroit
5. Cleveland
6. Toronto
7. Washington
8. Atlanta
9. Orlando
10. New Jersey
11. Charlotte
12. Milwaukee
13. N.Y. Knicks
14. Indiana
15. Philadelphia

FIRST ROUND: WEST: Spurs over Blazers, Suns over Lakers, Mavs over Jazz, Nuggets over Rockets; EAST: Bulls over Hawks, Celtics over Wizards, Heat over Raptors, Cavs over Pistons.
SECOND ROUND:WEST: Spurs over Nuggets, Suns over Mavs; EAST: Bulls over Cavs, Celtics over Heat.
CONFERENCE FINALS: WEST Suns over Spurs; EAST: Celtics over Bulls.
FINALS: Suns over Celtics.

E-mail: nick@wgr550.com

DAN's PREDICTIONS

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Chicago*
2. Boston*
3. Cleveland
4. Orlando*
5. New Jersey
6. Toronto
7. Detroit
8. Washington
9 Charlotte
10. Milwaukee
11. Atlanta
12. Miami
13. Philadelphia
14. New York
15. Indiana

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Antonio*
2. Phoenix*
3. Dallas
4. Utah*
5. Houston
6. LA Lakers
7. Portland
8. Memphis
9. Golden State
10. Denver
11. New Orleans
12. LA Clippers
13. Sacramento
14. Minnesota
15. Seattle

FIRST ROUND::EAST:Bulls over Wizards, Celtics over Magic, Cavs over Pistons, Raptors over Nets. WEST: Spurs over Memphis, Suns over Blazers, Lakers over Jazz, Mavs over Rockets.
SECOND ROUND:: EAST: Bulls over Raptors, Celtics over Cavs WEST: Spurs over Lakers, Suns over Mavs.
CONFERENCE FINALS:EAST: Bulls over Celtics. WEST:: Spurs over Suns.
FINALS: Spurs over Bulls.

E-mail: hager@wgr550.com

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