Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Sign Brian Campbell
4:23 AM | 
Posted by
Nick Mendola
There are a number of ways I could've cleverly-titled this column, variations on themes of defense, red hair and soup, but "Sign Brian Campbell" was the choice for a reason.
It's a no-brainer.
There's been discussion on our airwaves about how much Campbell will fetch in the off-season — likely a king's ransom — and arguments about where to throw your money in the "New NHL that closely resembles the old NHL," or NNHLTCRTONHL, for short.
The more you look at numbers, the more it makes sense to pay the man. Performance-wise, there aren't many times fans are watching a replay of an opponent's goal, wondering "What was Campbell thinking?" His offensive gifts are many, the physical play is there, and he eats minutes like the league's best.
Now, after shelling out crazy cash to Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy, and with Ryan Miller's contract on the horizon, it's okay to be a little hesitant to pay Campbell as one of your team's best, but let me walk you through an argument for re-signing the 28-year-old.
First off, he's becoming the most complete defenseman on the team, better offensively than Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman, and a shade better than Jaroslav Spacek in his own end. The numbers don't lie, either:
— His 49 points led Sabres blue-liners, and ranked 18th in the NHL in 2006-07, near young stud defenders like Calgary's Dion Phaneuf and Colorado's John-Michael Liles.
—His 16 points to-date this season rank 8th amongst NHL d-men, despite the Sabres spending a good portion of the early season trying to remember what it felt like to see a red light behind the other team's net.
— He's missed three games in three years, kills penalties and mans the point on a power play unit.
—His 25:07 in average ice time is 13th in the NHL.
— Campbell's recorded 13 points in 34 playoff games, which isn't too far off his production in the more wide-open regular season.
— Calling a guy "Soup" is fun, and the spin-o-rama move is pretty cool.
Of the regular defensemen, only Dmitri Kalinin and Nathan Paetsch are younger than Campbell, although "Soup" is only older than Henrik Tallinder by approximately four months. His 28 years appear to fall right in the wheel house of being able to relate to the new guys and hold weight with the veterans.
If you're asking if I think he should be captain, the answer is yes.
Then, there's the money issue, and there'll be plenty of hemming and hawing. Is he worth three-, four-, or five million per year? Is he more of an Andrei Markov or a Brian Rafalski? Well, how about you check out this list of defensemen and their salaries, and tell me you'd sign them over Campbell:
Paul Mara, NYR, $3 million
Brendan Witt, NYI, $2.8 million
Nick Boynton, PHX, $2.95 million
Brad Stuart, LA, $3.5 million
Sergei Zubov, DAL, $4 million
Mattias Ohlund, VAN, $3.5 million
Cory Sarich, CGY, $3.9 million
Those are all guys in the $4 million range, and several signed last year, in the "New NHL." Campbell is almost certainly a better asset than anyone on the list, and Sarich and Stuart were guys I advocated as Sabres last summer.
Is he Wade Redden, at $6.5 per year, or Chris Pronger at $6.25 million? No. In an ideal world, he should be more in the $3.5 million, Chris Phillips range, but this is also a league in which 475-year-old Mathieu Schneider is making $5.5 million, and still pretty productive. Market value is skewed beyond belief, and Phillips would make a lot more money somewhere else.
Someone is going to pay the man in the $4 to $4.5 million range, and I hope it's Darcy Regier and Tom Golisano. If necessary, I'd be willing go even higher, but I would hope that's unnecessary. Each assist, and minute logged on the ice is another step closer to unrestricted free agency.
A guy like Campbell may be missed more than a Daniel Briere, and while I wouldn't go quite as far as to say Chris Drury, he's getting there. The question you have to ask yourself is does the name "Brian Campbell" fit in your mind as a core-member of the Sabres, with names like Vanek, Roy, Hecht and Miller? All signs point to "Yes."
In summation, I'm only charging 1 percent, Soup. I'll give a lot of it to charity.
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
It's a no-brainer.
There's been discussion on our airwaves about how much Campbell will fetch in the off-season — likely a king's ransom — and arguments about where to throw your money in the "New NHL that closely resembles the old NHL," or NNHLTCRTONHL, for short.
The more you look at numbers, the more it makes sense to pay the man. Performance-wise, there aren't many times fans are watching a replay of an opponent's goal, wondering "What was Campbell thinking?" His offensive gifts are many, the physical play is there, and he eats minutes like the league's best.
Now, after shelling out crazy cash to Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy, and with Ryan Miller's contract on the horizon, it's okay to be a little hesitant to pay Campbell as one of your team's best, but let me walk you through an argument for re-signing the 28-year-old.
First off, he's becoming the most complete defenseman on the team, better offensively than Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman, and a shade better than Jaroslav Spacek in his own end. The numbers don't lie, either:
— His 49 points led Sabres blue-liners, and ranked 18th in the NHL in 2006-07, near young stud defenders like Calgary's Dion Phaneuf and Colorado's John-Michael Liles.
—His 16 points to-date this season rank 8th amongst NHL d-men, despite the Sabres spending a good portion of the early season trying to remember what it felt like to see a red light behind the other team's net.
— He's missed three games in three years, kills penalties and mans the point on a power play unit.
—His 25:07 in average ice time is 13th in the NHL.
— Campbell's recorded 13 points in 34 playoff games, which isn't too far off his production in the more wide-open regular season.
— Calling a guy "Soup" is fun, and the spin-o-rama move is pretty cool.
Of the regular defensemen, only Dmitri Kalinin and Nathan Paetsch are younger than Campbell, although "Soup" is only older than Henrik Tallinder by approximately four months. His 28 years appear to fall right in the wheel house of being able to relate to the new guys and hold weight with the veterans.
If you're asking if I think he should be captain, the answer is yes.
Then, there's the money issue, and there'll be plenty of hemming and hawing. Is he worth three-, four-, or five million per year? Is he more of an Andrei Markov or a Brian Rafalski? Well, how about you check out this list of defensemen and their salaries, and tell me you'd sign them over Campbell:
Paul Mara, NYR, $3 million
Brendan Witt, NYI, $2.8 million
Nick Boynton, PHX, $2.95 million
Brad Stuart, LA, $3.5 million
Sergei Zubov, DAL, $4 million
Mattias Ohlund, VAN, $3.5 million
Cory Sarich, CGY, $3.9 million
Those are all guys in the $4 million range, and several signed last year, in the "New NHL." Campbell is almost certainly a better asset than anyone on the list, and Sarich and Stuart were guys I advocated as Sabres last summer.
Is he Wade Redden, at $6.5 per year, or Chris Pronger at $6.25 million? No. In an ideal world, he should be more in the $3.5 million, Chris Phillips range, but this is also a league in which 475-year-old Mathieu Schneider is making $5.5 million, and still pretty productive. Market value is skewed beyond belief, and Phillips would make a lot more money somewhere else.
Someone is going to pay the man in the $4 to $4.5 million range, and I hope it's Darcy Regier and Tom Golisano. If necessary, I'd be willing go even higher, but I would hope that's unnecessary. Each assist, and minute logged on the ice is another step closer to unrestricted free agency.
A guy like Campbell may be missed more than a Daniel Briere, and while I wouldn't go quite as far as to say Chris Drury, he's getting there. The question you have to ask yourself is does the name "Brian Campbell" fit in your mind as a core-member of the Sabres, with names like Vanek, Roy, Hecht and Miller? All signs point to "Yes."
In summation, I'm only charging 1 percent, Soup. I'll give a lot of it to charity.
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
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Monday, November 19, 2007
IMMEDIATE REACTIONS: New England 56, Buffalo 10
510 net yards. 8/11 on third down. 2/2 on fourth down. One punt. Seven offensive touchdowns. One defensive score. 10-0.
What. The. Heck?
Football teams are not supposed to be as good as the New England Patriots. This is going to — by far — be the shortest of my "Immediate Reactions" columns this year, and it has almost nothing to do with it being post-midnight.
Look, I was as hopeful as anyone about the Bills having improbable success against the Pats, but a Bills team without their star running back and with quarterback/wide receiver issues against one of the most cutthroat teams in the history of the NFL.
On the eve of the Whiney Awards, there are already a close-to-record 289 calls to the Whiner Line. Guess who listens to and cut that baby every morning? Yeah, we're going to keep this quick...
— First, the "running up" of the score. I don't have much of a problem with the continuing to pass and attempting to score well into the second half, but I have a number of complaints with New England head coach Bill Belichick, who I think displayed classlessness numerous times (Is classlessness even a word? It's awkward to type. Sounds about time for my weekly apology to Linda Bogdan and the UB English department).
Look, Billy, I know you're trying to get your boy Tom Brady his touchdown record, but don't you think he was in there well after the game was out-of-reach. Also, going for it on fourth down, up 36. Stay classy, William.
I wish I could say I was incredulous the entire time, but I expected it. Belichick's established his modus operandi for 2007, and he unflinchingly presses on.
— I'm not sure what Dick Jauron could've done that would've altered the course of the game entirely, but moving away from Anthony Thomas a little earlier couldn't have hurt. I'm sure the logic was that if you established some semblance of a run with Thomas, the Patriots wouldn't be able to read pass every time he was in there. The Bills offensive line was brutal against New England's pressure, but 11 carries for 31 yards isn't going to cut it. Fred Jackson carried three times for 15 yards, and Dwayne Wright had one carry for one yard. Even worse, Losman tied Thomas in yardage on just four rushes.
— Is there any chance the conversation between the official who threw the intentional grounding flag on Brady and ol' Tom himself didn't go like this:
"Intentional grounding, Tom."
"Oh, good, you know my name. I wasn' t sure if you're aware that I'm Tom $&^%$^%$ Brady and I know %$^$%^& well where the ^&%$%&^$ pocket is."
— For the record, because I think those who call me a "Losman apologist" will appreciate it, here are the incredible stats of all the quarterbacks who have faced the New England defense this year (the final number is quarterback rating for the game):
Wk1- Chad Pennington, 16/21, 167 yards, 4 sacks, 2 TD, 0 INT - 130. 5
Wk2- Phillip Rivers, 19/30, 179 yards, 3 sacks, 2 TD, 2 INT - 74.2
Wk3- Trent Edwards, 10/20, 97 yards, 1 sack, 1 INT - 43.1
Wk4- Carson Palmer, 21/35, 234 yards, 1 sack, 1 TD, 2 INT - 65.7
Wk5- Derek Anderson, 22/43, 287 yards, 3 sacks, 2 TD, 3 INT - 58.9
Wk6- Tony Romo, 18/29, 199 yards, 2 sacks, 2 TD, 1 INT - 91.0
Wk7- Cleo Lemon, 24/37, 236 yards, 3 sacks, 1 INT - 71.4
Wk8- Jason Campbell, 21/36, 197 yards, 3 sacks, 1 TD, 1 INT - 71.2
Wk9- Peyton Manning, 16/27, 225 yards, 3 sacks, 1 TD, 1 INT - 83.1
Wk10- BYE
Wk11- J.P. Losman 15/26, 173 yards, 4 sacks, 1 TD, 1 INT - 74.7
In essence, Losman had the same game every quarterback whose faced the Patriots this year has had. If you live by the quarterback rating, which is kind of silly, he had the fourth-best day against the Patriots this year. I listened to Mike Schopp and The Bulldog's post-game show on the way home, and if you want to lambaste Losman and get him out of the line-up, go for it, but not because of Sunday night. Maybe Howard Simon was right about the whole "free pass" thing. I think Losman starts next week against Jacksonville, and I believe it will be his final chance to "make or break" 2007 for the Bills.
— While the Bills front four did a decent job against the rush in the first half, they should be berated for their lack of pass rush. New England's line is good, and Brady is poised, but come on. You need more from Aaron Schobel and company.
— A note on Brady: he looks like he could take a nap when he's in the shotgun. His body language is that of a guy who barely cares what's going to happen, and then he proceeds to do things like fire lasers in between three Bills defenders. The guy looks he's listening to Coldplay in the pocket. His passes seem to make open receivers appear out of thin air, a la David Blaine.
— I guess it pays to use early draft picks on good linemen. I guess.
— I hope Stephen Gostkowski's foot isn't sore from kicking all those extra points, eight to be exact. Did anyone else feel like Belichick would go for two every time if he didn't think Anthony Hargrove would eat Tom Brady. Love Hargrove on the field, but Brady's the wrong guy to pick a fight with, Big Tony.
— Tough day for Brian Moorman. It's been an off-year for the All-Pro punter, which simply means he's been "pretty good" instead of "incredible.'
— Also, Terrence McGee has to feel like he ran a marathon. After covering Moss and Donte Stallworth up-and-down the field, he had to mentally regroup while returning eight kicks, which would've been nine if Fred Jackson hadn't been antsy.
— Randy Moss is good, but Brady remade him this season.
— Perry Fewell's done an exceptional job as defensive coordinator in 2007, but there were far too many plays Sunday night that began with two defensive backs despite the fact that Wes Welker was in the slot. Angelo Crowell won't work on Welker, and Donte Whitner and George Wilson simply aren't good enough pass defenders yet. Wilson had an especially rough game, and it's worth watching whether Jauron plugs Jim Leonhard back in against Jacksonville.
— Grades across the board were F's, so if I've missed something, just pretend I wrote about it being "substandard," "insufficient" or "lackluster." That should just about cover it all.
Stat line I enjoyed:
— John DiGiorgio, 11 tackles
What's the old maxim? "It ain't the size of the dog in the fight..." The Bills were out-classed Sunday night, but I was impressed that they pushed forward. Hey, it's not much, but it's something.
Stat line I didn't enjoy:
— Eight different receivers, 383 yards, 5 TD.
I know they're good, but that doesn't mean I have to enjoy it. At least we'll be able to tell our grandchildren we saw greatness, again and again and again and again.
Stat line I didn't expect:
— Dwayne Wright/Fred Jackson, 4 carries, 16 yards
That's 4.0 yards-per-carries for the youngsters, and it was extra disappointing for me consider I spent Thursday afternoon writing an article on how excited the kids were to play, and how much the coaches said they believed in them. *Cough* Bull (Expletive deleted) *Cough*
Lastly...
To sum it all up, I'm amazed that I walked out there feeling just slightly worse than I did after the Jets win. It was a foregone conclusion, and while I hate that, it was a young defense that the Brady Bunch tore up in Primetime.
Next week
—I think the Bills of Weeks One through Ten are good enough to beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville, but I also think the Patriots showed the Jaguars far too many ways to exploit the Bills. Marshawn Lynch's status is a big factor in this one, but the Jags defensive line will create a number of issues for Beast Mode as well. My heart's pulling one way, but my brain is saying: Jacksonville 21, Buffalo 18.
The again, I predicted New England would beat Buffalo, 31-20, so what the heck do I know?
The running count...
Here, dear friends, is a list that usually includes the players who have yet to let me down during the course of 2007. With Lynch's injury making him ineligible, this list would likely be down t Roscoe Parrish if I was honest, but do you think "The running count" deserves a free pass for Week 11? If not, it's going to be one player — Parrish — putting the future of the running count in serious jeopardy. So, make the call, and email me with a vote or "yay" or "nay" to a free pass for this list. I'm sure Donte Whitner waits will baited breath.
-Donte Whitner
-Brian Moorman
-Marshawn Lynch
-Roscoe Parrish
-Larry Tripplett
-John McCargo...
—Terrific to see Kevin Everett looking healthy on the scoreboard. I know I'll continue my well-wishes and prayers for him and everyone with serious handicaps or misfortunes. Important to remind ourselves that we've got a lot going for us. Get better, Kevin.
—Howard Simon Show, Monday morning at 6 a.m., followed by The Coach's Extra Point, with Chuck Dickerson and me at 10 a.m. Let's have some fun, Bills fans.
E-mails: nick@wgr550.com
What. The. Heck?
Football teams are not supposed to be as good as the New England Patriots. This is going to — by far — be the shortest of my "Immediate Reactions" columns this year, and it has almost nothing to do with it being post-midnight.
Look, I was as hopeful as anyone about the Bills having improbable success against the Pats, but a Bills team without their star running back and with quarterback/wide receiver issues against one of the most cutthroat teams in the history of the NFL.
On the eve of the Whiney Awards, there are already a close-to-record 289 calls to the Whiner Line. Guess who listens to and cut that baby every morning? Yeah, we're going to keep this quick...
— First, the "running up" of the score. I don't have much of a problem with the continuing to pass and attempting to score well into the second half, but I have a number of complaints with New England head coach Bill Belichick, who I think displayed classlessness numerous times (Is classlessness even a word? It's awkward to type. Sounds about time for my weekly apology to Linda Bogdan and the UB English department).
Look, Billy, I know you're trying to get your boy Tom Brady his touchdown record, but don't you think he was in there well after the game was out-of-reach. Also, going for it on fourth down, up 36. Stay classy, William.
I wish I could say I was incredulous the entire time, but I expected it. Belichick's established his modus operandi for 2007, and he unflinchingly presses on.
— I'm not sure what Dick Jauron could've done that would've altered the course of the game entirely, but moving away from Anthony Thomas a little earlier couldn't have hurt. I'm sure the logic was that if you established some semblance of a run with Thomas, the Patriots wouldn't be able to read pass every time he was in there. The Bills offensive line was brutal against New England's pressure, but 11 carries for 31 yards isn't going to cut it. Fred Jackson carried three times for 15 yards, and Dwayne Wright had one carry for one yard. Even worse, Losman tied Thomas in yardage on just four rushes.
— Is there any chance the conversation between the official who threw the intentional grounding flag on Brady and ol' Tom himself didn't go like this:
"Intentional grounding, Tom."
"Oh, good, you know my name. I wasn' t sure if you're aware that I'm Tom $&^%$^%$ Brady and I know %$^$%^& well where the ^&%$%&^$ pocket is."
— For the record, because I think those who call me a "Losman apologist" will appreciate it, here are the incredible stats of all the quarterbacks who have faced the New England defense this year (the final number is quarterback rating for the game):
Wk1- Chad Pennington, 16/21, 167 yards, 4 sacks, 2 TD, 0 INT - 130. 5
Wk2- Phillip Rivers, 19/30, 179 yards, 3 sacks, 2 TD, 2 INT - 74.2
Wk3- Trent Edwards, 10/20, 97 yards, 1 sack, 1 INT - 43.1
Wk4- Carson Palmer, 21/35, 234 yards, 1 sack, 1 TD, 2 INT - 65.7
Wk5- Derek Anderson, 22/43, 287 yards, 3 sacks, 2 TD, 3 INT - 58.9
Wk6- Tony Romo, 18/29, 199 yards, 2 sacks, 2 TD, 1 INT - 91.0
Wk7- Cleo Lemon, 24/37, 236 yards, 3 sacks, 1 INT - 71.4
Wk8- Jason Campbell, 21/36, 197 yards, 3 sacks, 1 TD, 1 INT - 71.2
Wk9- Peyton Manning, 16/27, 225 yards, 3 sacks, 1 TD, 1 INT - 83.1
Wk10- BYE
Wk11- J.P. Losman 15/26, 173 yards, 4 sacks, 1 TD, 1 INT - 74.7
In essence, Losman had the same game every quarterback whose faced the Patriots this year has had. If you live by the quarterback rating, which is kind of silly, he had the fourth-best day against the Patriots this year. I listened to Mike Schopp and The Bulldog's post-game show on the way home, and if you want to lambaste Losman and get him out of the line-up, go for it, but not because of Sunday night. Maybe Howard Simon was right about the whole "free pass" thing. I think Losman starts next week against Jacksonville, and I believe it will be his final chance to "make or break" 2007 for the Bills.
— While the Bills front four did a decent job against the rush in the first half, they should be berated for their lack of pass rush. New England's line is good, and Brady is poised, but come on. You need more from Aaron Schobel and company.
— A note on Brady: he looks like he could take a nap when he's in the shotgun. His body language is that of a guy who barely cares what's going to happen, and then he proceeds to do things like fire lasers in between three Bills defenders. The guy looks he's listening to Coldplay in the pocket. His passes seem to make open receivers appear out of thin air, a la David Blaine.
— I guess it pays to use early draft picks on good linemen. I guess.
— I hope Stephen Gostkowski's foot isn't sore from kicking all those extra points, eight to be exact. Did anyone else feel like Belichick would go for two every time if he didn't think Anthony Hargrove would eat Tom Brady. Love Hargrove on the field, but Brady's the wrong guy to pick a fight with, Big Tony.
— Tough day for Brian Moorman. It's been an off-year for the All-Pro punter, which simply means he's been "pretty good" instead of "incredible.'
— Also, Terrence McGee has to feel like he ran a marathon. After covering Moss and Donte Stallworth up-and-down the field, he had to mentally regroup while returning eight kicks, which would've been nine if Fred Jackson hadn't been antsy.
— Randy Moss is good, but Brady remade him this season.
— Perry Fewell's done an exceptional job as defensive coordinator in 2007, but there were far too many plays Sunday night that began with two defensive backs despite the fact that Wes Welker was in the slot. Angelo Crowell won't work on Welker, and Donte Whitner and George Wilson simply aren't good enough pass defenders yet. Wilson had an especially rough game, and it's worth watching whether Jauron plugs Jim Leonhard back in against Jacksonville.
— Grades across the board were F's, so if I've missed something, just pretend I wrote about it being "substandard," "insufficient" or "lackluster." That should just about cover it all.
Stat line I enjoyed:
— John DiGiorgio, 11 tackles
What's the old maxim? "It ain't the size of the dog in the fight..." The Bills were out-classed Sunday night, but I was impressed that they pushed forward. Hey, it's not much, but it's something.
Stat line I didn't enjoy:
— Eight different receivers, 383 yards, 5 TD.
I know they're good, but that doesn't mean I have to enjoy it. At least we'll be able to tell our grandchildren we saw greatness, again and again and again and again.
Stat line I didn't expect:
— Dwayne Wright/Fred Jackson, 4 carries, 16 yards
That's 4.0 yards-per-carries for the youngsters, and it was extra disappointing for me consider I spent Thursday afternoon writing an article on how excited the kids were to play, and how much the coaches said they believed in them. *Cough* Bull (Expletive deleted) *Cough*
Lastly...
To sum it all up, I'm amazed that I walked out there feeling just slightly worse than I did after the Jets win. It was a foregone conclusion, and while I hate that, it was a young defense that the Brady Bunch tore up in Primetime.
Next week
—I think the Bills of Weeks One through Ten are good enough to beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville, but I also think the Patriots showed the Jaguars far too many ways to exploit the Bills. Marshawn Lynch's status is a big factor in this one, but the Jags defensive line will create a number of issues for Beast Mode as well. My heart's pulling one way, but my brain is saying: Jacksonville 21, Buffalo 18.
The again, I predicted New England would beat Buffalo, 31-20, so what the heck do I know?
The running count...
Here, dear friends, is a list that usually includes the players who have yet to let me down during the course of 2007. With Lynch's injury making him ineligible, this list would likely be down t Roscoe Parrish if I was honest, but do you think "The running count" deserves a free pass for Week 11? If not, it's going to be one player — Parrish — putting the future of the running count in serious jeopardy. So, make the call, and email me with a vote or "yay" or "nay" to a free pass for this list. I'm sure Donte Whitner waits will baited breath.
-Donte Whitner
-Brian Moorman
-Marshawn Lynch
-Roscoe Parrish
-Larry Tripplett
-John McCargo...
—Terrific to see Kevin Everett looking healthy on the scoreboard. I know I'll continue my well-wishes and prayers for him and everyone with serious handicaps or misfortunes. Important to remind ourselves that we've got a lot going for us. Get better, Kevin.
—Howard Simon Show, Monday morning at 6 a.m., followed by The Coach's Extra Point, with Chuck Dickerson and me at 10 a.m. Let's have some fun, Bills fans.
E-mails: nick@wgr550.com
Sunday, November 11, 2007
IMMEDIATE REACTIONS: Buffalo 13, Miami 10
That was, without question, one of the worst good weather football games played in the history of the NFL, or at least the ones I've watched. Terrible offense on both sides of the ball. Dropped passes, poor passes, poor blocking. Just brutal. The Dolphins are perhaps the one team the Bills have played that are worse than the Jets. I'm going to try and write as little about this game as possible.
Still, the old cliche...
A win is a win is a win.
Right?
Let's check it out.
— First and foremost, the question on everyone's mind: J.P. Losman. The veteran had a lousy first half, as bad as I've seen from him or anyone not named Ray Lucas. The second half was markedly better. This game was essentially the Pittsburgh game, except the fourth-quarter numbers actually mattered. His first-half was wildly-inaccurate, including a terrible interception in the second quarter that could've crushed the Bills' hopes had Miami been anything but inept. A half like that from your quarterback will likely be the death knell for the Bills against most teams.
Enter the second half, and it's very difficult to separate the two in your mind, but Losman went 8-of-12 for 95 yards, with a sack and a miserable throw-away that Will Allen almost took to the house. Still, it's hard to forget that Michael Gaines dropped a sure touchdown on a beautiful touch pass in the third quarter. I won't pro-rate stats, but Losman has now directed the team to three consecutive fourth-quarter wins. Yes, he was an abomination in the opening half, but he's your starter moving forward. Let the hate-filled emails begin...
In fact, the more I think about it, the more Edwards can't be the man yet. The Bills lost two games — Denver and Dallas — that they deserved to win, and won two games — The Jets and Dolphins — that they deserved to lose. Each signal caller was responsible for a win and a loss, so we're fine (Except New England is next week).
— Marshawn Lynch's game wasn't his best, but like the rest of the offense, he was there when it counted. The touchdown run and two-point conversion were both Beast Mode at it's highest. With the exception of the fumble, and the mildly-terrifying injury, he ends up with 61 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards, which works. Hope for his health, because the Bills have the smallest chance to win in the football world with Anthony Thomas or Dwayne Wright as their feature back.
— Were they using new footballs? Marty Booker was simply awful for the Dolphins, who had to have been missing Chris Chambers, as well as a reliable tight end like Randy McMichael seemed to be in every game against the Bills. Buffalo dropped a bunch, too.
— For those who thought Lee Evans didn't go after Losman's passes, here's hoping you saw the Will Allen interception. If you didn't, just picture a mirror image of the Edwards interception against the Jets that some said Evans didn't fight for. Football can be ridiculous.
— At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Donte Whitner has been worth every bit of that eighth-overall pick. He's a solid tackler, a threat around the line of scrimmage and, as we learned against Miami, a motivator in the huddle. At least twice, cameras caught him propping his teammates up after rough spots that would've crippled the team in 2006.
— John DiGiorgio has been adequate, and the Italian side of my lineage is planning a hit on me just for writing this, but wouldn't it be nice to have Paul Posluszny returning for a primetime game against the best team in the NFL? Rhetorical, I know.
— Let's not forget that Josh Reed catch on the right sideline at the very end of the first half. The clock CBS provides which, if I'm not mistaken, is connected to the actual game clock, was at :01 when Reed stepped out-of-bounds. I realize it's the "home clock" benefit, but where in the world was this supposed "home clock" benefit on the onside kick against Dallas? Yes, I'm still bitter.
— With Trent Edwards, I've been a guy who's held third-down conversions in high regard all year, and Edwards has been poor, but Losman didn't direct anything on third-down. One out of 10 on third down.
— One thing you won't hear this week is how the Dolphins had the bye week to prepare for the Bills, but I guarantee you'll hear it an awful lot next week against the Patriots, especially if you-know-who is somehow the starting quarterback.
— Remember last year, when the main concern was Losman's inability to win a game in the final quarter until he lit up the Texans, and Peerless Price may-or-may-not have tapped his toes in the back of the end zone. Three fourth-quarter wins in a row, playing down to the competition or not, seems pretty impressive, regardless of if his performance dug the hole this time around. There will always be a hang-up between the fans, certain media members, and Losman, at least until he's fully out-of-town.
— Not to get too sentimental, but there was something special about the way Chris Kelsay talked about season back when spoke to the press on the first day of off-season work-outs. He's now made two big end zone plays, and would have a nice number of sacks if he didn't spend the first four games of the season playing with spray butter on his gloves (I know he just missed the tackles, but I'm going with the spray butter line. Plus, it makes me think of fresh muffins).
Stat line I enjoyed:
— Terrence McGee, seven tackles, two passes defended
— Jabari Greer, one tackle, two passes defended
The "passes defended" stat isn't one I put a lot of faith in, but both McGee and Greer made clutch plays on the final drive. McGee broke up a third-down out-pattern that would've all but put the Dolphins in field goal range, and Greer broke up a game-ending toss to Booker. Both players have been solid against teams without No. 1 wide-outs, and did a fine job against Dallas, too. The Moss/Stallworth/Welker combination will be a true test, especially with one of those threats being guarded by Kiwaukee Thomas, Jerametrius Butler or Ashton Youboty. At least Tom Brady doesn't use his tight ends. Yikes.
Stat line I didn't enjoy:
— Losman's first half... 4/11, 62 yards, INT
Just brutal. Nothing like building confidence with fans and teammates by looking terrible against the Dolphins, although Miami's downfall has been it's run defense, not stopping the pass. His second half was more than enough to keep him as starter against New England, though, if only to avoid quashing Edwards' confidence.
Stat line I didn't expect:
— Jesse Chatman, 27 carries, 124 yards.
A defense that held down Thomas Jones, Rudi Johnson and, for the most part, Willis McGahee had its hands full with the girl who sang "Fast Car?" Oh, that was Tracy Chapman? My mistake. Play on, boys.
Lastly...
Nothing. I'm done writing about this game. Can't we talk about the Sabres? Scratch that. Can't we start tailgating for next week?
Next week
It'll likely be ugly, but take solace in the fact that the Bills play the Patriots tight at least once each season. If it's 21-0 in the first quarter, go ahead and chastise me, but I'm looking forward to experiencing another night game at the Ralph, and I'm also going to be optimistic, and blatantly disregard the reality that is the 9-0 Patriots. Then again, Hey! It's a four-game win streak with three of those coming with Losman in the fourth quarter. Pulling for the defense, but too many questions surround this game... New England 31, Buffalo 20.
The running count...
Roscoe Parrish is on notice for next week, but I can't take him off the list of players who haven't let me down thanks to that wonderful punt-return in the fourth quarter. Larry Tripplett and John McCargo weren't all over the place, but hard to pull almost any defenders off a list after a 13-10 win, even over Miami.
-Donte Whitner
-Brian Moorman
-Marshawn Lynch
-Roscoe Parrish
-Larry Tripplett
-John McCargo...
—Get better, Kevin Everett
Can't wait to read the spiteful Losman E-mails: nick@wgr550.com
Still, the old cliche...
A win is a win is a win.
Right?
Let's check it out.
— First and foremost, the question on everyone's mind: J.P. Losman. The veteran had a lousy first half, as bad as I've seen from him or anyone not named Ray Lucas. The second half was markedly better. This game was essentially the Pittsburgh game, except the fourth-quarter numbers actually mattered. His first-half was wildly-inaccurate, including a terrible interception in the second quarter that could've crushed the Bills' hopes had Miami been anything but inept. A half like that from your quarterback will likely be the death knell for the Bills against most teams.
Enter the second half, and it's very difficult to separate the two in your mind, but Losman went 8-of-12 for 95 yards, with a sack and a miserable throw-away that Will Allen almost took to the house. Still, it's hard to forget that Michael Gaines dropped a sure touchdown on a beautiful touch pass in the third quarter. I won't pro-rate stats, but Losman has now directed the team to three consecutive fourth-quarter wins. Yes, he was an abomination in the opening half, but he's your starter moving forward. Let the hate-filled emails begin...
In fact, the more I think about it, the more Edwards can't be the man yet. The Bills lost two games — Denver and Dallas — that they deserved to win, and won two games — The Jets and Dolphins — that they deserved to lose. Each signal caller was responsible for a win and a loss, so we're fine (Except New England is next week).
— Marshawn Lynch's game wasn't his best, but like the rest of the offense, he was there when it counted. The touchdown run and two-point conversion were both Beast Mode at it's highest. With the exception of the fumble, and the mildly-terrifying injury, he ends up with 61 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards, which works. Hope for his health, because the Bills have the smallest chance to win in the football world with Anthony Thomas or Dwayne Wright as their feature back.
— Were they using new footballs? Marty Booker was simply awful for the Dolphins, who had to have been missing Chris Chambers, as well as a reliable tight end like Randy McMichael seemed to be in every game against the Bills. Buffalo dropped a bunch, too.
— For those who thought Lee Evans didn't go after Losman's passes, here's hoping you saw the Will Allen interception. If you didn't, just picture a mirror image of the Edwards interception against the Jets that some said Evans didn't fight for. Football can be ridiculous.
— At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Donte Whitner has been worth every bit of that eighth-overall pick. He's a solid tackler, a threat around the line of scrimmage and, as we learned against Miami, a motivator in the huddle. At least twice, cameras caught him propping his teammates up after rough spots that would've crippled the team in 2006.
— John DiGiorgio has been adequate, and the Italian side of my lineage is planning a hit on me just for writing this, but wouldn't it be nice to have Paul Posluszny returning for a primetime game against the best team in the NFL? Rhetorical, I know.
— Let's not forget that Josh Reed catch on the right sideline at the very end of the first half. The clock CBS provides which, if I'm not mistaken, is connected to the actual game clock, was at :01 when Reed stepped out-of-bounds. I realize it's the "home clock" benefit, but where in the world was this supposed "home clock" benefit on the onside kick against Dallas? Yes, I'm still bitter.
— With Trent Edwards, I've been a guy who's held third-down conversions in high regard all year, and Edwards has been poor, but Losman didn't direct anything on third-down. One out of 10 on third down.
— One thing you won't hear this week is how the Dolphins had the bye week to prepare for the Bills, but I guarantee you'll hear it an awful lot next week against the Patriots, especially if you-know-who is somehow the starting quarterback.
— Remember last year, when the main concern was Losman's inability to win a game in the final quarter until he lit up the Texans, and Peerless Price may-or-may-not have tapped his toes in the back of the end zone. Three fourth-quarter wins in a row, playing down to the competition or not, seems pretty impressive, regardless of if his performance dug the hole this time around. There will always be a hang-up between the fans, certain media members, and Losman, at least until he's fully out-of-town.
— Not to get too sentimental, but there was something special about the way Chris Kelsay talked about season back when spoke to the press on the first day of off-season work-outs. He's now made two big end zone plays, and would have a nice number of sacks if he didn't spend the first four games of the season playing with spray butter on his gloves (I know he just missed the tackles, but I'm going with the spray butter line. Plus, it makes me think of fresh muffins).
Stat line I enjoyed:
— Terrence McGee, seven tackles, two passes defended
— Jabari Greer, one tackle, two passes defended
The "passes defended" stat isn't one I put a lot of faith in, but both McGee and Greer made clutch plays on the final drive. McGee broke up a third-down out-pattern that would've all but put the Dolphins in field goal range, and Greer broke up a game-ending toss to Booker. Both players have been solid against teams without No. 1 wide-outs, and did a fine job against Dallas, too. The Moss/Stallworth/Welker combination will be a true test, especially with one of those threats being guarded by Kiwaukee Thomas, Jerametrius Butler or Ashton Youboty. At least Tom Brady doesn't use his tight ends. Yikes.
Stat line I didn't enjoy:
— Losman's first half... 4/11, 62 yards, INT
Just brutal. Nothing like building confidence with fans and teammates by looking terrible against the Dolphins, although Miami's downfall has been it's run defense, not stopping the pass. His second half was more than enough to keep him as starter against New England, though, if only to avoid quashing Edwards' confidence.
Stat line I didn't expect:
— Jesse Chatman, 27 carries, 124 yards.
A defense that held down Thomas Jones, Rudi Johnson and, for the most part, Willis McGahee had its hands full with the girl who sang "Fast Car?" Oh, that was Tracy Chapman? My mistake. Play on, boys.
Lastly...
Nothing. I'm done writing about this game. Can't we talk about the Sabres? Scratch that. Can't we start tailgating for next week?
Next week
It'll likely be ugly, but take solace in the fact that the Bills play the Patriots tight at least once each season. If it's 21-0 in the first quarter, go ahead and chastise me, but I'm looking forward to experiencing another night game at the Ralph, and I'm also going to be optimistic, and blatantly disregard the reality that is the 9-0 Patriots. Then again, Hey! It's a four-game win streak with three of those coming with Losman in the fourth quarter. Pulling for the defense, but too many questions surround this game... New England 31, Buffalo 20.
The running count...
Roscoe Parrish is on notice for next week, but I can't take him off the list of players who haven't let me down thanks to that wonderful punt-return in the fourth quarter. Larry Tripplett and John McCargo weren't all over the place, but hard to pull almost any defenders off a list after a 13-10 win, even over Miami.
-Donte Whitner
-Brian Moorman
-Marshawn Lynch
-Roscoe Parrish
-Larry Tripplett
-John McCargo...
—Get better, Kevin Everett
Can't wait to read the spiteful Losman E-mails: nick@wgr550.com
Sunday, November 4, 2007
IMMEDIATE REACTIONS: Buffalo 33, Cincinnati 21
WEEKLY WARNING: I was at the game, so if I missed something that was pointed out on replay, or more easily viewed on television, I don't hold myself accountable. As always, these are gut feelings written as soon as I get the chance to sit down and write.
— That was the most satisfying mid-season win over a bad defense I've ever experienced. Besides the Chad Johnson injury, which I don't want to gloss over — it was a sickening form of deja vu in Ralph Wilson Stadium — everything was aces at One Bills Drive.
— Very difficult to do anything but sing the praises of J.P. Losman, but let's start with the offensive line. Still suspect as run blockers, but gave Losman all the time he could possibly want to operate. Just a fantastic job, and continued improvement from the Bills' most significant — not good or bad, significant — free agent signings since Takeo Spikes.
— That was one of Losman's most impressive starts as a pro, as he gave the Bills' brass almost everything they could've asked for:
*a fourth-quarter comeback
*closing out an opponent
*long passes
*10-15 yard passes
*check downs
*throwing to tight ends
*converting third downs
*squeezing the ball into small windows
*elusiveness against the pass rush
*improvisation
*time of possession
*passes into the end zone
All that was missing was a little more intelligent work when things broke down around him, like the interception and a couple other forced passes in the brutal wind at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Just a monster day.
— Perhaps most impressive was the first drive, when both his critics, supporters and — most importantly — teammates saw evidence of the player who was one of the NFL's top-rated passers in 2006. 38-, 19- and 8-yard completions to Lee Evans. A 10-yard run from Lynch. Not one set of downs made it to third. Granted, it was against the Bengals, but an inspiring performance considering how many eyes were dissecting that first drive.
— Just ran across this stat in a post-game write-up: Rian Lindell hit his 235th straight extra point, which is the NFL record for consecutive extra points to start a career. Surely a rough day for Tommy Davis, who set the record in 1965.
There can't be too many fans who don't have complete confidence in Lindell, who hasn't missed a big kick in a while after misfiring in the 2004 finale against Pittsburgh and last year against the Colts — a game in which Peyton Manning would've had time to mount a drive afterwards, anyway, but let's not live in the past.
— BEAST MODE! It was great to watch Marshawn Lynch get rewarded for his hard running style with a brilliant, tackle-breaking, 56-yard run to seal the victory late in the fourth quarter. Lynch is already one of my favorite backs to watch in the NFL, and he got a little of the Tomlinson treatment, completing an 8-yard touchdown pass to Robert Royal in the final quarter as well.
The halfback option was such a great call by the coaching staff, considering the Bills had run Lynch six-straight times to open that drive. Pretty nice throw from the rookie as well, and good to see that Royal didn't dive out-of-bounds. Yes, still bitter from last year.
— A rare off-day for the Bills coverage teams, chewed up by Cincinnati's Glenn Holt twice, once for a touchdown. Very surprised that Bobby April chose to kick to Holt late after avoiding him earlier in the second half.
— He'll get some amount of grief for a big drop — despite his scary injury — but Chad Johnson showed Orchard Park just how good of a receiver he is. Just three catches for 48 yards, but he demanded double coverage, and was all over the Bills secondary, who did a commendable job covering Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.
— Can't say enough about how the Bills defense didn't rattle after giving up 20-plus points for the first time since the Monday night loss to Dallas, Oct. 8. Very hard to get burned by play action when you hold a team to 28 yards on 17 carries. The defensive linemen and linebackers were stalwart against the run, and didn't miss too many tackles.
— Very impressed by the way Perry Fewell called the defense, yet again. A lot of pre-snap movement from the tackles and ends, as well as bouncing Donte Whitner in a lot of different spots, to challenge Palmer with several looks.
— Fourteen more tackles for Angelo Crowell, who is perhaps my favorite player on the defense. Took a liking to his solid tackling and superb instincts last season, and he's continued to impress, all but one week of 2007.
-- In terms of NFL parity, think about this:
This year, the three teams the Bills have beaten - Baltimore, Cincinnati and the Jets - have a combined record of 7-17. Last year, those three teams combined for a 31-17. Almost absurd. I take that back. It is absurd.
Here are the rest of our traditional features…
Stat line I enjoyed:
—Lee Evans, 9 catches, 165 yards, TD
Now, why in the world would Evans want Losman to quarterback this team? I still don't get it. Weird. Must make him a "bad teammate."
Stat line I didn't enjoy:
— Kenny Watson, 7 catches, 90 yards
I know it's a minor detail, but the Bills did not do a good job of depriving Palmer of his check down option out of the backfield. Thomas Jones and Marion Barber III had similar success against Buffalo in the past few games.
The official Steven Sadsack line of this column:
— Cincinnati's defense is pretty poor, but not that poor. Hard not to be happy with the contest,
Stat line that betrays itself:
— Palmer, 26/39, 271 yards, 2 TD, INT
Palmer had a nice day, and he's one of the best signal callers in the league, but 57 of those yards came in the garbage time drive to close the game. The Bills did a very good job against Palmer, who's one of those quarterbacks you wish was on your team.
Words of warning...
— It'd be nice for the Bills to crush Miami next week, allowing to Lynch to sit a quarter or two out. Through eight games, Lynch has 177 carries, putting him on pace for 354, a number that would've placed him second in the NFL in 2006. Larry Johnson led the league with 416.
Don't get me wrong, I love having a work horse who hates being tackled, but I also don't want to abuse it. Lynch is as exciting an athlete as the Bills have had, but he seems to get hit several times on each carry. I'd like to have him around for a few years.
Other NFL thoughts...
— 296 yards, Adrian Peterson. Really? Wow. This kid is so impressive, and is proving his doubters wrong by staying healthy. No one's questioned his ability — Peterson was downright freakish at Oklahoma — but collarbone and shoulder issues crippled some of his time for the Sooners. So far, so good for the 3-5 Vikings, who desperately need some steady quarterbacking.
— The Colts had the Patriots game in their hands, and choked it away. I've seen the Patriots play a lot this year, and they are one of the league's all-time best, but Indianapolis but the ball in New England's hands one-too-many times, including an undisciplined fumble by Peyton Manning on third down in the final three minutes. Now, I'm posting this column after the Patriots converted to send the game to the two-minute warning, so unless there's some Colt-magic, I don't think I'll have any editing to do.
— 19-17. That's the AFC's advantage in inter-conference play against the NFC. Detroit's absolute demolition of Denver made me look that stat up, and it's another number that would be .500 if the Bills didn't screw up Monday Night. No, I'm not forgetting anytime soon.
The running count…
Roscoe Parrish was injured, which may put his status for the running count in limbo for Week Ten, but can't take anyone off the list. Had a reader, Scott, suggest that I should be allowed to add players who weren't on the field at the beginning of the season, reasoning that those players hadn't let me down since they entered the spotlight. Another reader, Pat in Geneseo, said I should've taken Moorman off the list after the Jets game, but I told him I don't think it's right to retroactively remove someone, even if I think it might've been a mistake. Pat said I should be allowed to. Anyone agree? Shoot me an email and it could make the difference for Moorman, Derek Schouman, and George Wilson.
-Donte Whitner
-Brian Moorman
-Marshawn Lynch
-Roscoe Parrish
-Larry Tripplett
-John McCargo...
Next week
— Should be a blowout, especially if Losman's under center, but I bet the Dolphins keep it close, at least on the scoreboard. Buffalo 30, Miami 20.
—Get better, Kevin Everett. Pulling for Chad Johnson, too.
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
P.S. I'd be remiss if I didn't invite everyone to join me in my annual celebration of "No Shave November." It's based almost solely on my belief that Thanksgiving dinner is better when the men at the table have beards. Yes, I'm that odd.
— That was the most satisfying mid-season win over a bad defense I've ever experienced. Besides the Chad Johnson injury, which I don't want to gloss over — it was a sickening form of deja vu in Ralph Wilson Stadium — everything was aces at One Bills Drive.
— Very difficult to do anything but sing the praises of J.P. Losman, but let's start with the offensive line. Still suspect as run blockers, but gave Losman all the time he could possibly want to operate. Just a fantastic job, and continued improvement from the Bills' most significant — not good or bad, significant — free agent signings since Takeo Spikes.
— That was one of Losman's most impressive starts as a pro, as he gave the Bills' brass almost everything they could've asked for:
*a fourth-quarter comeback
*closing out an opponent
*long passes
*10-15 yard passes
*check downs
*throwing to tight ends
*converting third downs
*squeezing the ball into small windows
*elusiveness against the pass rush
*improvisation
*time of possession
*passes into the end zone
All that was missing was a little more intelligent work when things broke down around him, like the interception and a couple other forced passes in the brutal wind at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Just a monster day.
— Perhaps most impressive was the first drive, when both his critics, supporters and — most importantly — teammates saw evidence of the player who was one of the NFL's top-rated passers in 2006. 38-, 19- and 8-yard completions to Lee Evans. A 10-yard run from Lynch. Not one set of downs made it to third. Granted, it was against the Bengals, but an inspiring performance considering how many eyes were dissecting that first drive.
— Just ran across this stat in a post-game write-up: Rian Lindell hit his 235th straight extra point, which is the NFL record for consecutive extra points to start a career. Surely a rough day for Tommy Davis, who set the record in 1965.
There can't be too many fans who don't have complete confidence in Lindell, who hasn't missed a big kick in a while after misfiring in the 2004 finale against Pittsburgh and last year against the Colts — a game in which Peyton Manning would've had time to mount a drive afterwards, anyway, but let's not live in the past.
— BEAST MODE! It was great to watch Marshawn Lynch get rewarded for his hard running style with a brilliant, tackle-breaking, 56-yard run to seal the victory late in the fourth quarter. Lynch is already one of my favorite backs to watch in the NFL, and he got a little of the Tomlinson treatment, completing an 8-yard touchdown pass to Robert Royal in the final quarter as well.
The halfback option was such a great call by the coaching staff, considering the Bills had run Lynch six-straight times to open that drive. Pretty nice throw from the rookie as well, and good to see that Royal didn't dive out-of-bounds. Yes, still bitter from last year.
— A rare off-day for the Bills coverage teams, chewed up by Cincinnati's Glenn Holt twice, once for a touchdown. Very surprised that Bobby April chose to kick to Holt late after avoiding him earlier in the second half.
— He'll get some amount of grief for a big drop — despite his scary injury — but Chad Johnson showed Orchard Park just how good of a receiver he is. Just three catches for 48 yards, but he demanded double coverage, and was all over the Bills secondary, who did a commendable job covering Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.
— Can't say enough about how the Bills defense didn't rattle after giving up 20-plus points for the first time since the Monday night loss to Dallas, Oct. 8. Very hard to get burned by play action when you hold a team to 28 yards on 17 carries. The defensive linemen and linebackers were stalwart against the run, and didn't miss too many tackles.
— Very impressed by the way Perry Fewell called the defense, yet again. A lot of pre-snap movement from the tackles and ends, as well as bouncing Donte Whitner in a lot of different spots, to challenge Palmer with several looks.
— Fourteen more tackles for Angelo Crowell, who is perhaps my favorite player on the defense. Took a liking to his solid tackling and superb instincts last season, and he's continued to impress, all but one week of 2007.
-- In terms of NFL parity, think about this:
This year, the three teams the Bills have beaten - Baltimore, Cincinnati and the Jets - have a combined record of 7-17. Last year, those three teams combined for a 31-17. Almost absurd. I take that back. It is absurd.
Here are the rest of our traditional features…
Stat line I enjoyed:
—Lee Evans, 9 catches, 165 yards, TD
Now, why in the world would Evans want Losman to quarterback this team? I still don't get it. Weird. Must make him a "bad teammate."
Stat line I didn't enjoy:
— Kenny Watson, 7 catches, 90 yards
I know it's a minor detail, but the Bills did not do a good job of depriving Palmer of his check down option out of the backfield. Thomas Jones and Marion Barber III had similar success against Buffalo in the past few games.
The official Steven Sadsack line of this column:
— Cincinnati's defense is pretty poor, but not that poor. Hard not to be happy with the contest,
Stat line that betrays itself:
— Palmer, 26/39, 271 yards, 2 TD, INT
Palmer had a nice day, and he's one of the best signal callers in the league, but 57 of those yards came in the garbage time drive to close the game. The Bills did a very good job against Palmer, who's one of those quarterbacks you wish was on your team.
Words of warning...
— It'd be nice for the Bills to crush Miami next week, allowing to Lynch to sit a quarter or two out. Through eight games, Lynch has 177 carries, putting him on pace for 354, a number that would've placed him second in the NFL in 2006. Larry Johnson led the league with 416.
Don't get me wrong, I love having a work horse who hates being tackled, but I also don't want to abuse it. Lynch is as exciting an athlete as the Bills have had, but he seems to get hit several times on each carry. I'd like to have him around for a few years.
Other NFL thoughts...
— 296 yards, Adrian Peterson. Really? Wow. This kid is so impressive, and is proving his doubters wrong by staying healthy. No one's questioned his ability — Peterson was downright freakish at Oklahoma — but collarbone and shoulder issues crippled some of his time for the Sooners. So far, so good for the 3-5 Vikings, who desperately need some steady quarterbacking.
— The Colts had the Patriots game in their hands, and choked it away. I've seen the Patriots play a lot this year, and they are one of the league's all-time best, but Indianapolis but the ball in New England's hands one-too-many times, including an undisciplined fumble by Peyton Manning on third down in the final three minutes. Now, I'm posting this column after the Patriots converted to send the game to the two-minute warning, so unless there's some Colt-magic, I don't think I'll have any editing to do.
— 19-17. That's the AFC's advantage in inter-conference play against the NFC. Detroit's absolute demolition of Denver made me look that stat up, and it's another number that would be .500 if the Bills didn't screw up Monday Night. No, I'm not forgetting anytime soon.
The running count…
Roscoe Parrish was injured, which may put his status for the running count in limbo for Week Ten, but can't take anyone off the list. Had a reader, Scott, suggest that I should be allowed to add players who weren't on the field at the beginning of the season, reasoning that those players hadn't let me down since they entered the spotlight. Another reader, Pat in Geneseo, said I should've taken Moorman off the list after the Jets game, but I told him I don't think it's right to retroactively remove someone, even if I think it might've been a mistake. Pat said I should be allowed to. Anyone agree? Shoot me an email and it could make the difference for Moorman, Derek Schouman, and George Wilson.
-Donte Whitner
-Brian Moorman
-Marshawn Lynch
-Roscoe Parrish
-Larry Tripplett
-John McCargo...
Next week
— Should be a blowout, especially if Losman's under center, but I bet the Dolphins keep it close, at least on the scoreboard. Buffalo 30, Miami 20.
—Get better, Kevin Everett. Pulling for Chad Johnson, too.
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
P.S. I'd be remiss if I didn't invite everyone to join me in my annual celebration of "No Shave November." It's based almost solely on my belief that Thanksgiving dinner is better when the men at the table have beards. Yes, I'm that odd.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
2007-08 NBA Preview
It's almost ridiculous to make NBA predictions with the status of the league's premier scorer in limbo. Will Kobe Bryant be the best player on a Lakers team fighting for the playoffs, or the best player on another team that could contend for the Eastern Conference title. For our sake, we'll imagine that Jerry Buss isn't yet off his rocker enough to deal Bryant for dimes on the dollar. Some are saying it's a done deal, so we reserve the right to revise these predictions if he heads to another squad in the next week.
So we'll keep this short. A couple lines on each team, and we hope to hear from you. It's sometimes hard to talk basketball in Buffalo, but I know I'm down. Dan will be weighing in later with his Western Conference picks, so check back. Without further ado...
It's WGR's 2007-08 NBA Preview, brought to you by Lil' Penny
In no particular order, with predictions to follow...
WESTERN CONFERENCE
DALLAS MAVERICKS —
Nick Mendola: In a sense, they're the Buffalo Sabres of the NBA. Came on real strong a few years back, only to suffer an almost unbelievable early exit in the playoffs. The Mavas should come out on fire after being upset by Golden State in the first round, but look for the division to beat on them a little bit this year, with Houston stealing some wins from both Dallas and San Antonio. Josh Howard (19 points, seven boards per game) could post even bigger numbers as teams continue to key on Dirk Nowitzki.
Dan Hager: I wonder how last years collapse in the playoffs will hurt Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs this season. They added veteran depth in Eddie Jones and Juwan Howard, who was signed two days before opener. With young talent like Josh Howard and Devin Harris continually getting better, look for a successful '07-'08 campaign. Now can they hold up in the post season?
DENVER NUGGETS—
NM:I won't fall into the trap this time, Nuggets. Loved the Iverson acquisition last season, but I'm almost terrified that the honeymoon may be over. Carmelo Anthony's obviously legit, but can Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin be healthy and effective?
DH: Bringing in Allen Iverson last season was very intriguing for all NBA fans, but it was quickly forgotten. The AI/Melo combination has been lackluster to say the least. Maybe its
time to get rid of those jerseys and bring back the ol' mountain tops that Dikembe Mutombo used to sport? Now that was a jersey.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS—
NM: Really, really nice run last year, but there are some pretty good reasons the Warriors were the No. 8 seed. I've always been a big Baron Davis fan, but he needs to stay healthy and be the man almost every single night. Traded Jason Richardson for Brandan Wright, which could be a nice steal down the line.
DH:The Warriors gave their fans quite the
thrill last season, just making the playoffs and then upsetting the top-seeded Mavericks in the first round. Baron Davis will lead another young club this season which features rookie forward Brandan Wright who came to GS in the Jason Richardson deal. GS will need to score a lot of points to contend.
HOUSTON ROCKETS—
NM: Welcome, Rick Adelman, who handled a nice offense during his years in Sacramento. There's still Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, but I don't love Rafer Alston at the point. A lot of young guards, and will Steve Francis stay good on his word to be a role player?
DH: The Rockets have one of the toughest jobs in the NBA -- Staying relevant with the Spurs and Mavs in the same division. The team revolves around often injured Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming but the play of Luther Head and Shane Battier will give the rockets more options. If everyone stays healthy, and it's a big if, then look for the Rockets to move on in the playoffs.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS—
NM: Elton Brand is out until at least February and, quite simply, Tim Thomas is not Elton Brand. They'll still score with Corey Maggette, and Sam Cassell should keep them in line, but another tough season for a franchise that deserves better.
DH:The Clippers are continually getting better as a team but still can not climb out of the basement in the Western Conference. They took a big blow this summer when Elton Brand went down with a torn Achilles which will sideline him for much of the season. Although they have size, the Clip did not bring in anyone to counter Brand's injury, making thing difficult for LA's second team.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS—
NM: Again, it all hinges on Kobe. Do they pick up Gilbert Arenas from Washington? Is it Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas from the Bulls? If he's remotely happy, keeping him is the right pick. He knows how to carry a team in the West, and Andrew Bynum may show what he's about this year.
DH:No one can judge where the Lakers will be at the end of this season with Kobe Bryant trade talks still looming. If the Lakers deal their star they could bring in some exciting talent (Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah) but will it be enough to win NOW in LaLa land? If they keep Kobe anything they will still remain a middle-tier team in the powerful west unless they bring in some help: Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal?
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES—
NM: How new coach Marc Iavaroni convinced Pau Gasol not to demand a trade I don't know. Incredibly tough division, and Mike Conley and Rudy Gay still have a lot of learning to do. Stromile Swift, Darko Milicic and Hakim Warrick on the same team? Where's the draft day footage?
DH: The Griz have a lot of young talent that will begin to mature this season, giving them a chance to contend for a playoff spot. Hakim Warrick (25), Rudy Gay (21) and free agent Darko Milicic (22) will lead the Griz into the West's toughest division and could score some points. Rookie Mike Conley Jr. will be fun to watch leading the point with those three weapons.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES—
NM: I'm a huge Celtics fan, but Al Jefferson and Antoine Walker won't be enough to carry any weight. Jefferson is a viable stud at center, and will post big numbers once he adjusts to the West. Walker's going to do what he does, average 20 while taking way too many threes from way too deep. Corey Brewer (Florida), Randy Foye (Villanova) and Jefferson are a promising young core.
DH: Randy Foye, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green and Corey Brewer will make the T-Wolves a force in years to come. But this season names like Sebastian Telfair and Antoine Walker will only hurt the young talent on this team. Get rid of two of those players and the Wolves look a lot more respectable.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS—
NM: How in the world will Oklahoma City survive without their Hornets? Seriously, though, the Hornets new "fleur-de-bee" logo is my favorite uniform addition in a while. Want to get a rise out of Hager? Tell him Chris Paul's an upstanding citizen and your favorite NBA star.
DH: Another up-and-coming team that will rely on young talent to lead the way. Tyson Chandler needs to continue to improve in the low post coming off his best season as a pro(averaging 9.5 pts and 12.4 rpg) and rookie Julian Wright will need to progress fast for this team to contend for a playoff spot. It won't happen this year.
PHOENIX SUNS—
NM: No one loved the Tim Donaghy scandal more than the Suns, who already felt jobbed in the playoffs before the scandal was revealed. Love the drafting of Alando Tucker (Wisconsin) and D.J. Strawberry (Maryland), and Grant Hill's a good addition to an already elite team.
DH: By far the best team in the conference and maybe the most fun team to watch in the NBA. The fast-paced offense we have become accustom too over the last three seasons will again rule the desert, but will the Suns have the defense and size to get past the Mavs and Spurs? Look for the Suns to come up just short once again.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS—
NM: Going to surprise a lot of people, even without Greg Oden. Good depth with late draft pick-ups Taurean Green (Florida) and Josh McRoberts (Duke). Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge will combine for a lot of wins. Zach Randolph is a loss, but he had to go, and Channing Frye is a nice pick-up in return.
DH: Yeah I know it's a stretch, especially
with the top draft pick (Greg Oden) out for the entire season with a knee injury, but I like what Portland's front office did, drafting Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts to add depth and saving Channing Frye from the New York Knicks to accompany budding star LaMarcus Aldridge. I'm jumping on board with the Blazers and I'm pretty excited!
SACRAMENTO KINGS—
NM: Look, I follow basketball, but I follow the East more because of the Celtics, but when I missed my fantasy draft and the Internet chose Kevin Martin for me very early, I was ashamed at how little I knew about him. Still a big Ron Artest fan in terms of talent, and with Reggie Theus ("Hangtime") coaching, there should be some valuable lessons learned by Artest, in true Saturday morning sitcom fashion. Running the point with a girl still a dubious call, however.
DH: Oh how far the Kings have fallen since
contending in the west in the late 90s. With no scoring threat, an injured Mike Bibby (thumb surgery) and a troubled Ron Artest, things
don't seem to be looking to bright in Sacramento. A deal will need to be done!
SAN ANTONIO SPURS—
NM: Just sat through one of the most lackluster ring ceremony/banner unveilings of all-time before their opener against the Trail Blazers. David Stern could not look less excited that a team-first squad won his league. That said, they've got great depth, stars and coaching, and will probably win the league again.
DH: San Antonio is the class-act of the NBA and again have the talent to win another ring, but how long will it last. The Spurs are aging fast (Duncan 31, Bowen 36, Berry 35, Horry 37, Finley 34, Ginobli 30) and could fall off the ship at any time. But with Tim Duncan leading the way, don't expect that to happen this season.
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS—
NM: Dealt Ray Allen and let Rashard Lewis go to get younger. It'll hurt in the short term, but in Jeff Green (Georgetown) and Kevin Durant (Texas), the Sonics picked up two of the top five talents in the draft. Delonte West is a serviceable guard obtained in the Allen trade, and Luke Ridnour is a quiet contributor.
DH: The Sonics bring a young/inexperienced group into the 2007-08 campaign, beginning in a new era of basketball.
Kevin Durant will give Seattle fans something to watch as the Sonics prepare to leave town but won't be enough for the Sonics to get out of the gutter. Center Robert Swift gets my vote for most likely to get beat up by Avery Johnson? Take a look -http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2416
UTAH JAZZ—
NM: Big question mark on this team. Made a quality run even with a substandard campaign from Andrei Kirilenko. Have both Deron Williams and Dee Brown from those solid Illinois' clubs, and Carlos Boozer is as consistent a rebounder as there is outside of Brand.
DH: In one of the most uninteresting divisions in the NBA, the Jazz should come out on top after last year's run to the conference finals. Losing Derrick Fisher at the point will hurt the offense but look for a big year from Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. The Jazz will win their fair share of games in an otherwise weak division.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Is it weird that most of the cities that start with letters from the top half of the alphabet are out East, while the lower half are out West? This is how I think on a daily basis. Punch me in the face. —NM
ATLANTA HAWKS
NM: I want the Hawks to be good. I like every single player on their roster, and their new red, white and blue duds are pretty cool. Acie Law IV was my favorite college player, and when you throw in Al Horford (Florida), Marvin Williams (UNC), Shelden Williams (Duke), Josh Childress and Joe Johnson, the Hawks will be a lot of fun.
DH: Another team ready to begin a new era. Led by all-star Joe Johnson and up-and-comers Marvin Williams and Josh Childress, the Hawks have the fire power to win. Drafting Acie Law IV and Al Horford will add two threats to a maturing
lineup.
BOSTON CELTICS
NM: Don't get hurt, play well against Toronto, and they'll win the division. Garnett, Pierce and Allen will be too much for most Eastern teams to handle. Three players who have lost enough in the past to work together now. Glen "Big Baby" Davis and James Posey coming off the bench, and Rajon Rondo a solid set-up guy, considering he can't shoot. A little disappointed that they didn't keep Allan Ray so he could be on the same team with Ray Allen, but hooray for me.
DH: You have to be intrigued by the combination of Garnett/Allen/Pierce, but do you have to like it? To many the Celts are the sexy pick to come out of the improving East and they have the scoring power to do so, if they can stay health, and with the lack of depth on the Celtics bench, they'll have to do so, or else.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
NM: The Southeast is surprisingly deep. Jason Richardson will make an immediate impact, despite sacrificing Brandan Wright. Retaining Gerald Wallace was huge, and the Bobcats still have Sean May, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor and Adam Morrison. If you're looking for a team to root for, Charlotte's a good choice.
DH: Signing Gerald Wallace and bringing in Jason Richardson from Golden State begins a new era for the Jordan-led Bobcats. They could be the surprise team of the NBA this season with a deep bench which features a lot of players who had success in college — always a good thing! Adam Morrison's injury could be bigger hit than expected.
CHICAGO BULLS
NM: A scary, almost Western style team. The Marshawn Lynches of basketball, if you will. Were already one of the easy favorites in the East, and then drafted Pitt's 7-footer Aaron Gray, and Joakim Noah (Florida). In rotation with Tyrus Thomas, Ben Wallace and more... Wow. Love Ben Gordon.
DH:Chicago has the size, leadership and most importantly the depth to be a top contender in the East this season, but will have to win in their own division first. A trade for Kobe Bryant, if done right, could put Chicago over the edge. But is it worth the risk? Not if it involves Luol Deng who is set to have a big year, playing for a new contract next season.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
NM: It's still Lebron's team, and that'll be good enough to challenge in the East. Loved the emergence of Daniel Gibson, who's absolutely a player worth watching and rooting for. Didn't have a draft pick, which was weird.
DH: Any team led by a talent like Lebron James is sure to be dangerous. The Cavs still could use a big time talent to counter LBJ and it's proving not to be Larry Hughes, who continues to struggle with injuries. Daniel Gibson will need to continue his fast development. Not having Anderson Varejao (contract issues) will leave a big hole in the post.
DETROIT PISTONS
NM: Same old Pistons will be solid again in the East. Love the drafting of Aaron Afflalo, who could mature into the type of player who could help fill the shoes of Chauncey Billups.
DH:The Pistons dominance over the Central ended last season, but don't expect that to slow down this hungry group of veterans. Re-signing Chauncy Billips was a step in the right direction and he should be a good influence on top-draft pick Rodney Stuckley, whose had a strong summer showing fast improvement. The big question lies in health. Will this aging Detroit lineup be able to play through an entire 82-game season?
INDIANA PACERS
NM: Almost every game they win will be because of Jermaine O'Neal, and he may be dealt. When they play the Sixers, tickets should be free.
DH:Does anyone even care about the Pacers and their yearly antics anymore? Other than Jermaine O'Neal, who is constantly involved in trade rumors, Indy has no one who can take over a game. Once again it's a rebuilding year for the Pacers.
MIAMI HEAT
NM: Still the class of the Southeast. Dealing Antoine Walker was a great move, especially for a conditional first round pick and Ricky Davis. "Ricky Ricky" can play, but needs to check himself down. The keys, of course, are the health of Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.
DH: The Heat might suffer early season losses without Dwyane Wade (shoulder surgery) for the first month or two. Shaq is aging and doesn?t have the energy to lead this team whose only other scoring threat is — believe it or not — Ricky Davis. At least Coach Pat Riley will keep things interesting with cheap play if things aren't going Miami's way.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
NM: Michael Redd is very good, but the Bucks have had a revolving door around him, which doesn't do him any favors. It'd be nice if Andrew Bogut earned that No. 1 pick status, and I'm still glad to see Julius Hodge in the league. Charlie Villanueva hammered the best dunk I've ever seen in person when he was with Toronto.
DH: With a new head coach and a new threat in the post (1st round pick Yi Jianlian) it's unclear how the Bucks will mesh after an injury plagued 2006-07. Led by Mike Redd, the Bucks will most likely look to run the floor and score points, but will need to step up the defense in order to make a playoff run.
NEW JERSEY NETS
NM: Are we done with the Nets yet? Again, i pull for the Celtics, but there might not be a more over-hyped team in the league. Jason Kidd seems to always be on the block. Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson are good scorers. Their lack of depth is being largely ignored in the media. I hate the Nets.
DH: The Nets added needed size in the off-season and will have the bodies to compete against Garnett in Boston. With no trade rumors circling over Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter, distractions should be limited in the Garden State, which only helps the Nets record.
NEW YORK KNICKS
NM: Zach Randolph to New York. This should work out well. Still don't trust Eddy Curry, and you can root for Stephon Marbury until the cows come home, but the cows will wonder why you're rooting for the Knicks, too. Sorry, Beastie Boys.
DH:The Knicks made a lot of moves this off-season, none bigger than bringing in Zach Randolph from Portland. The inside threat of Randolph and Eddy Curry, who had his best year as a pro in 2007, could be fun to watch, but I'm not buying the
hype. David Lee will be a spark.
ORLANDO MAGIC
NM: Dwight Howard is simply one of the top players in the league, and he'll enjoy the support of Rashard Lewis, even if the Magic seemingly overpaid for him. Loss of Grant Hill will hurt.
DH: The Magic made big strides last season but their youth showed as the losses added up towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Adding Rashard Lewis brings in an outside scorer, taking pressure off a very good center in Dwight Howard. And who doesn't want to root for a team led by the one and only Stan Van Gundy.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
NM: With the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft...
DH: The 76ers are a very young team in the second year of GM Billy King's youth movement. Four draft picks will help both the starting lineup and depth but it won't be enough to win in an improving division. Andre Igudala and Andre Miller will need help but won't get it this year.
TORONTO RAPTORS
NM: The only true challenger to the Celtics in the Atlantic. Chris Bosh is one of the finest players in the NBA, and this Euro-heavy team should use their depth to make a strong playoff push.
DH:The Raptors turned a lot of heads last season by winning the division last season with a core of young talent leading the way. Chris Bosh is becoming a star in the East and Toronto has the young talent around to contend, but lack veteran leadership. Toronto might want to bring in some help inside but it will take some of their young talent in a trade.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
NM: The Wizards are going to score, and should hang on to Agent Zero. Gilbert Arenas is fun, relatively harmless and, most importantly, clutch. There might not be a star in the league you'd rather have in the closing
DH:Arenas has the ability to take over any game but how long will he be in the capital? (He and coach Eddie Johnson don't mix too well). Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are each big weapons aside Arenas, but are they enough? The Wizards need more from Brendan Heywood in the low post to open up their offense.
NICK'S PREDICTIONS
WEST
1. San Antonio*
2. Phoenix*
3. Dallas
4. Denver*
5. Houston
6. Utah
7. L.A. Lakers
8. Portland
9. Golden State
10. New Orleans
11. L.A. Clippers
12. Sacramento
13. Memphis
14. Seattle
15. Minnesota
EAST
1. Chicago*
2. Boston*
3. Miami*
4. Detroit
5. Cleveland
6. Toronto
7. Washington
8. Atlanta
9. Orlando
10. New Jersey
11. Charlotte
12. Milwaukee
13. N.Y. Knicks
14. Indiana
15. Philadelphia
FIRST ROUND: WEST: Spurs over Blazers, Suns over Lakers, Mavs over Jazz, Nuggets over Rockets; EAST: Bulls over Hawks, Celtics over Wizards, Heat over Raptors, Cavs over Pistons.
SECOND ROUND:WEST: Spurs over Nuggets, Suns over Mavs; EAST: Bulls over Cavs, Celtics over Heat.
CONFERENCE FINALS: WEST Suns over Spurs; EAST: Celtics over Bulls.
FINALS: Suns over Celtics.
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
DAN's PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Chicago*
2. Boston*
3. Cleveland
4. Orlando*
5. New Jersey
6. Toronto
7. Detroit
8. Washington
9 Charlotte
10. Milwaukee
11. Atlanta
12. Miami
13. Philadelphia
14. New York
15. Indiana
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Antonio*
2. Phoenix*
3. Dallas
4. Utah*
5. Houston
6. LA Lakers
7. Portland
8. Memphis
9. Golden State
10. Denver
11. New Orleans
12. LA Clippers
13. Sacramento
14. Minnesota
15. Seattle
FIRST ROUND::EAST:Bulls over Wizards, Celtics over Magic, Cavs over Pistons, Raptors over Nets. WEST: Spurs over Memphis, Suns over Blazers, Lakers over Jazz, Mavs over Rockets.
SECOND ROUND:: EAST: Bulls over Raptors, Celtics over Cavs WEST: Spurs over Lakers, Suns over Mavs.
CONFERENCE FINALS:EAST: Bulls over Celtics. WEST:: Spurs over Suns.
FINALS: Spurs over Bulls.
E-mail: hager@wgr550.com
So we'll keep this short. A couple lines on each team, and we hope to hear from you. It's sometimes hard to talk basketball in Buffalo, but I know I'm down. Dan will be weighing in later with his Western Conference picks, so check back. Without further ado...
It's WGR's 2007-08 NBA Preview, brought to you by Lil' Penny
In no particular order, with predictions to follow...
WESTERN CONFERENCE
DALLAS MAVERICKS —
Nick Mendola: In a sense, they're the Buffalo Sabres of the NBA. Came on real strong a few years back, only to suffer an almost unbelievable early exit in the playoffs. The Mavas should come out on fire after being upset by Golden State in the first round, but look for the division to beat on them a little bit this year, with Houston stealing some wins from both Dallas and San Antonio. Josh Howard (19 points, seven boards per game) could post even bigger numbers as teams continue to key on Dirk Nowitzki.
Dan Hager: I wonder how last years collapse in the playoffs will hurt Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs this season. They added veteran depth in Eddie Jones and Juwan Howard, who was signed two days before opener. With young talent like Josh Howard and Devin Harris continually getting better, look for a successful '07-'08 campaign. Now can they hold up in the post season?
DENVER NUGGETS—
NM:I won't fall into the trap this time, Nuggets. Loved the Iverson acquisition last season, but I'm almost terrified that the honeymoon may be over. Carmelo Anthony's obviously legit, but can Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin be healthy and effective?
DH: Bringing in Allen Iverson last season was very intriguing for all NBA fans, but it was quickly forgotten. The AI/Melo combination has been lackluster to say the least. Maybe its
time to get rid of those jerseys and bring back the ol' mountain tops that Dikembe Mutombo used to sport? Now that was a jersey.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS—
NM: Really, really nice run last year, but there are some pretty good reasons the Warriors were the No. 8 seed. I've always been a big Baron Davis fan, but he needs to stay healthy and be the man almost every single night. Traded Jason Richardson for Brandan Wright, which could be a nice steal down the line.
DH:The Warriors gave their fans quite the
thrill last season, just making the playoffs and then upsetting the top-seeded Mavericks in the first round. Baron Davis will lead another young club this season which features rookie forward Brandan Wright who came to GS in the Jason Richardson deal. GS will need to score a lot of points to contend.
HOUSTON ROCKETS—
NM: Welcome, Rick Adelman, who handled a nice offense during his years in Sacramento. There's still Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, but I don't love Rafer Alston at the point. A lot of young guards, and will Steve Francis stay good on his word to be a role player?
DH: The Rockets have one of the toughest jobs in the NBA -- Staying relevant with the Spurs and Mavs in the same division. The team revolves around often injured Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming but the play of Luther Head and Shane Battier will give the rockets more options. If everyone stays healthy, and it's a big if, then look for the Rockets to move on in the playoffs.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS—
NM: Elton Brand is out until at least February and, quite simply, Tim Thomas is not Elton Brand. They'll still score with Corey Maggette, and Sam Cassell should keep them in line, but another tough season for a franchise that deserves better.
DH:The Clippers are continually getting better as a team but still can not climb out of the basement in the Western Conference. They took a big blow this summer when Elton Brand went down with a torn Achilles which will sideline him for much of the season. Although they have size, the Clip did not bring in anyone to counter Brand's injury, making thing difficult for LA's second team.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS—
NM: Again, it all hinges on Kobe. Do they pick up Gilbert Arenas from Washington? Is it Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas from the Bulls? If he's remotely happy, keeping him is the right pick. He knows how to carry a team in the West, and Andrew Bynum may show what he's about this year.
DH:No one can judge where the Lakers will be at the end of this season with Kobe Bryant trade talks still looming. If the Lakers deal their star they could bring in some exciting talent (Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah) but will it be enough to win NOW in LaLa land? If they keep Kobe anything they will still remain a middle-tier team in the powerful west unless they bring in some help: Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal?
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES—
NM: How new coach Marc Iavaroni convinced Pau Gasol not to demand a trade I don't know. Incredibly tough division, and Mike Conley and Rudy Gay still have a lot of learning to do. Stromile Swift, Darko Milicic and Hakim Warrick on the same team? Where's the draft day footage?
DH: The Griz have a lot of young talent that will begin to mature this season, giving them a chance to contend for a playoff spot. Hakim Warrick (25), Rudy Gay (21) and free agent Darko Milicic (22) will lead the Griz into the West's toughest division and could score some points. Rookie Mike Conley Jr. will be fun to watch leading the point with those three weapons.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES—
NM: I'm a huge Celtics fan, but Al Jefferson and Antoine Walker won't be enough to carry any weight. Jefferson is a viable stud at center, and will post big numbers once he adjusts to the West. Walker's going to do what he does, average 20 while taking way too many threes from way too deep. Corey Brewer (Florida), Randy Foye (Villanova) and Jefferson are a promising young core.
DH: Randy Foye, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green and Corey Brewer will make the T-Wolves a force in years to come. But this season names like Sebastian Telfair and Antoine Walker will only hurt the young talent on this team. Get rid of two of those players and the Wolves look a lot more respectable.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS—
NM: How in the world will Oklahoma City survive without their Hornets? Seriously, though, the Hornets new "fleur-de-bee" logo is my favorite uniform addition in a while. Want to get a rise out of Hager? Tell him Chris Paul's an upstanding citizen and your favorite NBA star.
DH: Another up-and-coming team that will rely on young talent to lead the way. Tyson Chandler needs to continue to improve in the low post coming off his best season as a pro(averaging 9.5 pts and 12.4 rpg) and rookie Julian Wright will need to progress fast for this team to contend for a playoff spot. It won't happen this year.
PHOENIX SUNS—
NM: No one loved the Tim Donaghy scandal more than the Suns, who already felt jobbed in the playoffs before the scandal was revealed. Love the drafting of Alando Tucker (Wisconsin) and D.J. Strawberry (Maryland), and Grant Hill's a good addition to an already elite team.
DH: By far the best team in the conference and maybe the most fun team to watch in the NBA. The fast-paced offense we have become accustom too over the last three seasons will again rule the desert, but will the Suns have the defense and size to get past the Mavs and Spurs? Look for the Suns to come up just short once again.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS—
NM: Going to surprise a lot of people, even without Greg Oden. Good depth with late draft pick-ups Taurean Green (Florida) and Josh McRoberts (Duke). Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge will combine for a lot of wins. Zach Randolph is a loss, but he had to go, and Channing Frye is a nice pick-up in return.
DH: Yeah I know it's a stretch, especially
with the top draft pick (Greg Oden) out for the entire season with a knee injury, but I like what Portland's front office did, drafting Taurean Green and Josh McRoberts to add depth and saving Channing Frye from the New York Knicks to accompany budding star LaMarcus Aldridge. I'm jumping on board with the Blazers and I'm pretty excited!
SACRAMENTO KINGS—
NM: Look, I follow basketball, but I follow the East more because of the Celtics, but when I missed my fantasy draft and the Internet chose Kevin Martin for me very early, I was ashamed at how little I knew about him. Still a big Ron Artest fan in terms of talent, and with Reggie Theus ("Hangtime") coaching, there should be some valuable lessons learned by Artest, in true Saturday morning sitcom fashion. Running the point with a girl still a dubious call, however.
DH: Oh how far the Kings have fallen since
contending in the west in the late 90s. With no scoring threat, an injured Mike Bibby (thumb surgery) and a troubled Ron Artest, things
don't seem to be looking to bright in Sacramento. A deal will need to be done!
SAN ANTONIO SPURS—
NM: Just sat through one of the most lackluster ring ceremony/banner unveilings of all-time before their opener against the Trail Blazers. David Stern could not look less excited that a team-first squad won his league. That said, they've got great depth, stars and coaching, and will probably win the league again.
DH: San Antonio is the class-act of the NBA and again have the talent to win another ring, but how long will it last. The Spurs are aging fast (Duncan 31, Bowen 36, Berry 35, Horry 37, Finley 34, Ginobli 30) and could fall off the ship at any time. But with Tim Duncan leading the way, don't expect that to happen this season.
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS—
NM: Dealt Ray Allen and let Rashard Lewis go to get younger. It'll hurt in the short term, but in Jeff Green (Georgetown) and Kevin Durant (Texas), the Sonics picked up two of the top five talents in the draft. Delonte West is a serviceable guard obtained in the Allen trade, and Luke Ridnour is a quiet contributor.
DH: The Sonics bring a young/inexperienced group into the 2007-08 campaign, beginning in a new era of basketball.
Kevin Durant will give Seattle fans something to watch as the Sonics prepare to leave town but won't be enough for the Sonics to get out of the gutter. Center Robert Swift gets my vote for most likely to get beat up by Avery Johnson? Take a look -http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2416
UTAH JAZZ—
NM: Big question mark on this team. Made a quality run even with a substandard campaign from Andrei Kirilenko. Have both Deron Williams and Dee Brown from those solid Illinois' clubs, and Carlos Boozer is as consistent a rebounder as there is outside of Brand.
DH: In one of the most uninteresting divisions in the NBA, the Jazz should come out on top after last year's run to the conference finals. Losing Derrick Fisher at the point will hurt the offense but look for a big year from Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams. The Jazz will win their fair share of games in an otherwise weak division.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Is it weird that most of the cities that start with letters from the top half of the alphabet are out East, while the lower half are out West? This is how I think on a daily basis. Punch me in the face. —NM
ATLANTA HAWKS
NM: I want the Hawks to be good. I like every single player on their roster, and their new red, white and blue duds are pretty cool. Acie Law IV was my favorite college player, and when you throw in Al Horford (Florida), Marvin Williams (UNC), Shelden Williams (Duke), Josh Childress and Joe Johnson, the Hawks will be a lot of fun.
DH: Another team ready to begin a new era. Led by all-star Joe Johnson and up-and-comers Marvin Williams and Josh Childress, the Hawks have the fire power to win. Drafting Acie Law IV and Al Horford will add two threats to a maturing
lineup.
BOSTON CELTICS
NM: Don't get hurt, play well against Toronto, and they'll win the division. Garnett, Pierce and Allen will be too much for most Eastern teams to handle. Three players who have lost enough in the past to work together now. Glen "Big Baby" Davis and James Posey coming off the bench, and Rajon Rondo a solid set-up guy, considering he can't shoot. A little disappointed that they didn't keep Allan Ray so he could be on the same team with Ray Allen, but hooray for me.
DH: You have to be intrigued by the combination of Garnett/Allen/Pierce, but do you have to like it? To many the Celts are the sexy pick to come out of the improving East and they have the scoring power to do so, if they can stay health, and with the lack of depth on the Celtics bench, they'll have to do so, or else.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
NM: The Southeast is surprisingly deep. Jason Richardson will make an immediate impact, despite sacrificing Brandan Wright. Retaining Gerald Wallace was huge, and the Bobcats still have Sean May, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor and Adam Morrison. If you're looking for a team to root for, Charlotte's a good choice.
DH: Signing Gerald Wallace and bringing in Jason Richardson from Golden State begins a new era for the Jordan-led Bobcats. They could be the surprise team of the NBA this season with a deep bench which features a lot of players who had success in college — always a good thing! Adam Morrison's injury could be bigger hit than expected.
CHICAGO BULLS
NM: A scary, almost Western style team. The Marshawn Lynches of basketball, if you will. Were already one of the easy favorites in the East, and then drafted Pitt's 7-footer Aaron Gray, and Joakim Noah (Florida). In rotation with Tyrus Thomas, Ben Wallace and more... Wow. Love Ben Gordon.
DH:Chicago has the size, leadership and most importantly the depth to be a top contender in the East this season, but will have to win in their own division first. A trade for Kobe Bryant, if done right, could put Chicago over the edge. But is it worth the risk? Not if it involves Luol Deng who is set to have a big year, playing for a new contract next season.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
NM: It's still Lebron's team, and that'll be good enough to challenge in the East. Loved the emergence of Daniel Gibson, who's absolutely a player worth watching and rooting for. Didn't have a draft pick, which was weird.
DH: Any team led by a talent like Lebron James is sure to be dangerous. The Cavs still could use a big time talent to counter LBJ and it's proving not to be Larry Hughes, who continues to struggle with injuries. Daniel Gibson will need to continue his fast development. Not having Anderson Varejao (contract issues) will leave a big hole in the post.
DETROIT PISTONS
NM: Same old Pistons will be solid again in the East. Love the drafting of Aaron Afflalo, who could mature into the type of player who could help fill the shoes of Chauncey Billups.
DH:The Pistons dominance over the Central ended last season, but don't expect that to slow down this hungry group of veterans. Re-signing Chauncy Billips was a step in the right direction and he should be a good influence on top-draft pick Rodney Stuckley, whose had a strong summer showing fast improvement. The big question lies in health. Will this aging Detroit lineup be able to play through an entire 82-game season?
INDIANA PACERS
NM: Almost every game they win will be because of Jermaine O'Neal, and he may be dealt. When they play the Sixers, tickets should be free.
DH:Does anyone even care about the Pacers and their yearly antics anymore? Other than Jermaine O'Neal, who is constantly involved in trade rumors, Indy has no one who can take over a game. Once again it's a rebuilding year for the Pacers.
MIAMI HEAT
NM: Still the class of the Southeast. Dealing Antoine Walker was a great move, especially for a conditional first round pick and Ricky Davis. "Ricky Ricky" can play, but needs to check himself down. The keys, of course, are the health of Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal.
DH: The Heat might suffer early season losses without Dwyane Wade (shoulder surgery) for the first month or two. Shaq is aging and doesn?t have the energy to lead this team whose only other scoring threat is — believe it or not — Ricky Davis. At least Coach Pat Riley will keep things interesting with cheap play if things aren't going Miami's way.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
NM: Michael Redd is very good, but the Bucks have had a revolving door around him, which doesn't do him any favors. It'd be nice if Andrew Bogut earned that No. 1 pick status, and I'm still glad to see Julius Hodge in the league. Charlie Villanueva hammered the best dunk I've ever seen in person when he was with Toronto.
DH: With a new head coach and a new threat in the post (1st round pick Yi Jianlian) it's unclear how the Bucks will mesh after an injury plagued 2006-07. Led by Mike Redd, the Bucks will most likely look to run the floor and score points, but will need to step up the defense in order to make a playoff run.
NEW JERSEY NETS
NM: Are we done with the Nets yet? Again, i pull for the Celtics, but there might not be a more over-hyped team in the league. Jason Kidd seems to always be on the block. Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson are good scorers. Their lack of depth is being largely ignored in the media. I hate the Nets.
DH: The Nets added needed size in the off-season and will have the bodies to compete against Garnett in Boston. With no trade rumors circling over Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter, distractions should be limited in the Garden State, which only helps the Nets record.
NEW YORK KNICKS
NM: Zach Randolph to New York. This should work out well. Still don't trust Eddy Curry, and you can root for Stephon Marbury until the cows come home, but the cows will wonder why you're rooting for the Knicks, too. Sorry, Beastie Boys.
DH:The Knicks made a lot of moves this off-season, none bigger than bringing in Zach Randolph from Portland. The inside threat of Randolph and Eddy Curry, who had his best year as a pro in 2007, could be fun to watch, but I'm not buying the
hype. David Lee will be a spark.
ORLANDO MAGIC
NM: Dwight Howard is simply one of the top players in the league, and he'll enjoy the support of Rashard Lewis, even if the Magic seemingly overpaid for him. Loss of Grant Hill will hurt.
DH: The Magic made big strides last season but their youth showed as the losses added up towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Adding Rashard Lewis brings in an outside scorer, taking pressure off a very good center in Dwight Howard. And who doesn't want to root for a team led by the one and only Stan Van Gundy.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
NM: With the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft...
DH: The 76ers are a very young team in the second year of GM Billy King's youth movement. Four draft picks will help both the starting lineup and depth but it won't be enough to win in an improving division. Andre Igudala and Andre Miller will need help but won't get it this year.
TORONTO RAPTORS
NM: The only true challenger to the Celtics in the Atlantic. Chris Bosh is one of the finest players in the NBA, and this Euro-heavy team should use their depth to make a strong playoff push.
DH:The Raptors turned a lot of heads last season by winning the division last season with a core of young talent leading the way. Chris Bosh is becoming a star in the East and Toronto has the young talent around to contend, but lack veteran leadership. Toronto might want to bring in some help inside but it will take some of their young talent in a trade.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
NM: The Wizards are going to score, and should hang on to Agent Zero. Gilbert Arenas is fun, relatively harmless and, most importantly, clutch. There might not be a star in the league you'd rather have in the closing
DH:Arenas has the ability to take over any game but how long will he be in the capital? (He and coach Eddie Johnson don't mix too well). Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler are each big weapons aside Arenas, but are they enough? The Wizards need more from Brendan Heywood in the low post to open up their offense.
NICK'S PREDICTIONS
WEST
1. San Antonio*
2. Phoenix*
3. Dallas
4. Denver*
5. Houston
6. Utah
7. L.A. Lakers
8. Portland
9. Golden State
10. New Orleans
11. L.A. Clippers
12. Sacramento
13. Memphis
14. Seattle
15. Minnesota
EAST
1. Chicago*
2. Boston*
3. Miami*
4. Detroit
5. Cleveland
6. Toronto
7. Washington
8. Atlanta
9. Orlando
10. New Jersey
11. Charlotte
12. Milwaukee
13. N.Y. Knicks
14. Indiana
15. Philadelphia
FIRST ROUND: WEST: Spurs over Blazers, Suns over Lakers, Mavs over Jazz, Nuggets over Rockets; EAST: Bulls over Hawks, Celtics over Wizards, Heat over Raptors, Cavs over Pistons.
SECOND ROUND:WEST: Spurs over Nuggets, Suns over Mavs; EAST: Bulls over Cavs, Celtics over Heat.
CONFERENCE FINALS: WEST Suns over Spurs; EAST: Celtics over Bulls.
FINALS: Suns over Celtics.
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
DAN's PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Chicago*
2. Boston*
3. Cleveland
4. Orlando*
5. New Jersey
6. Toronto
7. Detroit
8. Washington
9 Charlotte
10. Milwaukee
11. Atlanta
12. Miami
13. Philadelphia
14. New York
15. Indiana
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Antonio*
2. Phoenix*
3. Dallas
4. Utah*
5. Houston
6. LA Lakers
7. Portland
8. Memphis
9. Golden State
10. Denver
11. New Orleans
12. LA Clippers
13. Sacramento
14. Minnesota
15. Seattle
FIRST ROUND::EAST:Bulls over Wizards, Celtics over Magic, Cavs over Pistons, Raptors over Nets. WEST: Spurs over Memphis, Suns over Blazers, Lakers over Jazz, Mavs over Rockets.
SECOND ROUND:: EAST: Bulls over Raptors, Celtics over Cavs WEST: Spurs over Lakers, Suns over Mavs.
CONFERENCE FINALS:EAST: Bulls over Celtics. WEST:: Spurs over Suns.
FINALS: Spurs over Bulls.
E-mail: hager@wgr550.com
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Bulls on the Brink -- Can it work in Buffalo?
Pardon me if I rip yours and my sporting mind away from Losman/Edwards for 10 minutes, but I need to know — Can it work here?
No, this isn't about the Bills. It isn't about the Sabres. It's not about Bass Pro, a thousand-level casino downtown or a mass-transit system.
It's about Division I football (I know, I know — go play intramurals, brother).
After my traditional mid-afternoon siesta, I peeled myself out of bed for some dinner, but not before I checked my email. In my inbox was a link to the latest of ESPN's 2007 Bowl predictions, and here's how it read:
International Bowl, MAC No. 3 vs. Big East No. 4:
Ivan Maisel: Ball State vs. UConn
Mark Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Never mind that I have no idea who the heck Mark Schlabach is, I've been thinking about this since the Bulls strung together back-to-back home wins against Ohio and Toledo, but seeing it in print made it all the more real. Admittedly, I have a vested interest in the idea — UB is my alma mater (go English department, go) and I work on the radio broadcast, but it feels so close. Even the Cubs/Sabres/Bills fan in me is hopeful that Turner Gill has done enough to bring the Bulls to the national spotlight this quickly in his head coaching career, and not just as successor to Tom Osborne at Nebraska.
UB travels to Miami of Ohio, a traditional Mid American Conference power, for a 3 p.m. Saturday showdown on WGR, and a win would go a long ways toward clinching the MAC East, inserting the Bulls in a post-season game, if not a bowl. The Mid American Conference has three bowl bids — its champion goes to the GMAC Bowl in Alabama, another team to the Motor City Bowl in Detroit, and a third to the International Bowl in Toronto.
This season more than any previous, I've heard UB football talk in random places, and this time it isn't because of an early schedule game against Syracuse, a new coach coming to town or Smash Mouth performing before the home opener, with Tony Hawk to follow at halftime.
It seems, in essence, to be the perfect storm. The Bulls had a road game scheduled with Penn State that had blow-out written all over it, but the kids responded by staying competitive late into the contest with the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. They've won all but one game in conference, a thrashing at the hands of the MAC's top team, Ball State, and had every single chip fall in their favor in division. They play the two teams that stand in their way in consecutive weeks: first, Miami, followed by Bowling Green in UB's home finale, after a bye week to heal up and prepare for the Falcons.
On top of all this, several of their top players are not only young, but from the area. Niagara Falls' James Starks has been a freak at running back, after spending his high school under center. Starks has 12 touchdowns and over 1,000 combined yards rushing and receiving. He's been explosive at home and on the road. St. Joe's product Naaman Roosevelt is the team's leading receiver, hauling in 43 balls for 489 yards and two scores, while also lining up under center on occasion.
Junior quarterback Drew Willy's quarterback rating is 134.8 (the numbers in college are a little different, but believe me, they're still impressive). An opportunistic defense has improved each week, posting 11 interceptions and 17 sacks, including eight by senior captain Trevor Scott, who was a tight end until his junior year. Both Scott and center Jamey Richard have pro potential. Thirty percent of voters at the conference web site picked UB in a web poll, and the question wasn't, "Which team are you most likely to stomp on?" (For the record, it asked who would win the MAC East).
In the end all these positives will be tested under fire in November. Three of the Bulls four wins have come at home, and all in October. They've faltered —bowing to an underwhelming Syracuse team after back-to-back wins at home.
The Bulls are in absolutely unchartered waters for the program, and will be in the house of a program that's been there, and recently, winning the title in 2003 and 2004. Miami retired Ben Roethlisberger's jersey just last week, and the Redhawks program is considered the "Cradle of Coaches," with Paul Brown, Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian, Weeb Ewbank and Bo Schembechler all coming through Miami. Bowling Green's no patsy, either.
Still, what does it all mean? Certainly, athletic director Warde Manuel and Coach Gill have done enough to ensure that this program is worth talking about, if not taking a peek at, but perhaps UB's at the fault of its own good marketing. Prospective fans bought in with the hiring of Syracuse staffer Jim Hofher, and were rewarded for the faith with a bevy of losses and ineptitude.
In a certain sense, fans have taken a "fooled me once" approach, not necessarily in interest, but in attendance at the Bulls' first four home games:
22,676 against Baylor
10,755 against Ohio
12,529 against Toledo
10,142 against Akron
Gill has charisma, and I know I bought in early, coughing up the money for season tickets, and the folks I've gave the tickets to have had a great time watching a Buffalo team win, but what would it take for a college team to work in a seemingly pro town? Reggie Witherspoon and the Bulls had Alumni Arena sold-out and out-of-control a few years back, with a record 8,900 hoops fans, but that's a far cry from 30,000+ five times a year at UB Stadium.
I'll admit it — I'm nervous about the upcoming weeks when I look at the team objectively. When Willy's accurate, the Bulls are tough to beat, with a pass rush, secondary and rushing offense that's been on top of their game. They're still gouged occasionally against the run, and as I said, there's still the unchartered waters factor, which can't be understated.
But the biased alum and fan in me wonders what it would take to get folks on board. Can and will Western New York fully take to college football, or will it always be, "Nice to have the Bulls, but I've been rooting for Notre Dame, Michigan, or Ohio State since I was eight?"
I've come around. I'm a season ticket holder who can't wait for Saturdays.
Where do you stand?
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
(For all the bowl projections, click here.)
No, this isn't about the Bills. It isn't about the Sabres. It's not about Bass Pro, a thousand-level casino downtown or a mass-transit system.
It's about Division I football (I know, I know — go play intramurals, brother).
After my traditional mid-afternoon siesta, I peeled myself out of bed for some dinner, but not before I checked my email. In my inbox was a link to the latest of ESPN's 2007 Bowl predictions, and here's how it read:
International Bowl, MAC No. 3 vs. Big East No. 4:
Ivan Maisel: Ball State vs. UConn
Mark Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Never mind that I have no idea who the heck Mark Schlabach is, I've been thinking about this since the Bulls strung together back-to-back home wins against Ohio and Toledo, but seeing it in print made it all the more real. Admittedly, I have a vested interest in the idea — UB is my alma mater (go English department, go) and I work on the radio broadcast, but it feels so close. Even the Cubs/Sabres/Bills fan in me is hopeful that Turner Gill has done enough to bring the Bulls to the national spotlight this quickly in his head coaching career, and not just as successor to Tom Osborne at Nebraska.
UB travels to Miami of Ohio, a traditional Mid American Conference power, for a 3 p.m. Saturday showdown on WGR, and a win would go a long ways toward clinching the MAC East, inserting the Bulls in a post-season game, if not a bowl. The Mid American Conference has three bowl bids — its champion goes to the GMAC Bowl in Alabama, another team to the Motor City Bowl in Detroit, and a third to the International Bowl in Toronto.
This season more than any previous, I've heard UB football talk in random places, and this time it isn't because of an early schedule game against Syracuse, a new coach coming to town or Smash Mouth performing before the home opener, with Tony Hawk to follow at halftime.
It seems, in essence, to be the perfect storm. The Bulls had a road game scheduled with Penn State that had blow-out written all over it, but the kids responded by staying competitive late into the contest with the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. They've won all but one game in conference, a thrashing at the hands of the MAC's top team, Ball State, and had every single chip fall in their favor in division. They play the two teams that stand in their way in consecutive weeks: first, Miami, followed by Bowling Green in UB's home finale, after a bye week to heal up and prepare for the Falcons.
On top of all this, several of their top players are not only young, but from the area. Niagara Falls' James Starks has been a freak at running back, after spending his high school under center. Starks has 12 touchdowns and over 1,000 combined yards rushing and receiving. He's been explosive at home and on the road. St. Joe's product Naaman Roosevelt is the team's leading receiver, hauling in 43 balls for 489 yards and two scores, while also lining up under center on occasion.
Junior quarterback Drew Willy's quarterback rating is 134.8 (the numbers in college are a little different, but believe me, they're still impressive). An opportunistic defense has improved each week, posting 11 interceptions and 17 sacks, including eight by senior captain Trevor Scott, who was a tight end until his junior year. Both Scott and center Jamey Richard have pro potential. Thirty percent of voters at the conference web site picked UB in a web poll, and the question wasn't, "Which team are you most likely to stomp on?" (For the record, it asked who would win the MAC East).
In the end all these positives will be tested under fire in November. Three of the Bulls four wins have come at home, and all in October. They've faltered —bowing to an underwhelming Syracuse team after back-to-back wins at home.
The Bulls are in absolutely unchartered waters for the program, and will be in the house of a program that's been there, and recently, winning the title in 2003 and 2004. Miami retired Ben Roethlisberger's jersey just last week, and the Redhawks program is considered the "Cradle of Coaches," with Paul Brown, Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian, Weeb Ewbank and Bo Schembechler all coming through Miami. Bowling Green's no patsy, either.
Still, what does it all mean? Certainly, athletic director Warde Manuel and Coach Gill have done enough to ensure that this program is worth talking about, if not taking a peek at, but perhaps UB's at the fault of its own good marketing. Prospective fans bought in with the hiring of Syracuse staffer Jim Hofher, and were rewarded for the faith with a bevy of losses and ineptitude.
In a certain sense, fans have taken a "fooled me once" approach, not necessarily in interest, but in attendance at the Bulls' first four home games:
22,676 against Baylor
10,755 against Ohio
12,529 against Toledo
10,142 against Akron
Gill has charisma, and I know I bought in early, coughing up the money for season tickets, and the folks I've gave the tickets to have had a great time watching a Buffalo team win, but what would it take for a college team to work in a seemingly pro town? Reggie Witherspoon and the Bulls had Alumni Arena sold-out and out-of-control a few years back, with a record 8,900 hoops fans, but that's a far cry from 30,000+ five times a year at UB Stadium.
I'll admit it — I'm nervous about the upcoming weeks when I look at the team objectively. When Willy's accurate, the Bulls are tough to beat, with a pass rush, secondary and rushing offense that's been on top of their game. They're still gouged occasionally against the run, and as I said, there's still the unchartered waters factor, which can't be understated.
But the biased alum and fan in me wonders what it would take to get folks on board. Can and will Western New York fully take to college football, or will it always be, "Nice to have the Bulls, but I've been rooting for Notre Dame, Michigan, or Ohio State since I was eight?"
I've come around. I'm a season ticket holder who can't wait for Saturdays.
Where do you stand?
E-mail: nick@wgr550.com
(For all the bowl projections, click here.)
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