Friday, March 26, 2010

The most important 10 minutes of my season

(WGR 550) -- It's foolhardy to put too much into a regular season game, but I'm putting a ton into about 600 seconds of Friday's match between the Sabres and Senators at HSBC Arena.

I love times when Buffalo can prove they're a team to believe in, and the Sabres have failed me several times over the past three-plus seasons. When they sleep-walked through the Isles and Rangers in the '07 playoffs, I wasn't convinced they'd "wake up when it mattered," and they didn't. When they showed precious little heart early in the following two seasons, it put them into too deep of a hole to climb into the playoffs.

This year, they've ridden Ryan Miller to no lower than a third-place slot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but fans have been very wary about getting too pumped up. This team's let them down in a lot of key spots. So here's what I need.

I don't require a win tonight -- though it'd be great. I need to see something I didn't see during that pre-Olympic losing streak. Forget the deadbeat starts to the Pittsburgh and Ottawa losses. Remember the 4-3 loss to Carolina? Surely they'd come out like crazed animals. Nope.

The next night. Lowly Columbus. The Senators surging. Nope.

Then, after the break. You can forgive a Patrick Lalime loss to Pittsburgh, but Ryan Miller's return to the home nets versus Washington. Where was the gusto? Nowhere.

I'm sure we could go back and reel off a number of games like that, but I don't want to be strictly negative, because I'm very excited for Friday's game versus Ottawa. If Buffalo comes out tonight like they mean it, I'm on board. In the first 5-10 minutes of this game, they are hitting, moving and passing like a good-looking team, I can take some enthusiasm forward.

Admit it, you've been hesitant to jump on the train this year. It's not a bandwagon thing, as much as people want you feel bad. The team was the best team in the league a few years back, and faltered at too many times. Every team goes through a down period. The 2008-09 champion Penguins had a 5-13 stretch in December of that season. The Red Wings went through a 1-8-2 skid in the year they won the 2008 Cup. I'm sure you can find things like that in every champion's season.

I'm not saying the Sabres can't win in the playoffs if they lose or look uninspired against the Senators. That's silly. But if the Sabres can't get up for tonight... if the boys don't come out flying with a chance to make the playoffs by beating your rival -- in the process moving into second place in your conference and ensuring no Washington until the East Finals -- then you don't have me yet.

Simple as that. Go hard.

Looking forward to the game: nick@wgr550.com
Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Nix honesty refreshing... for now

"At 12:01 a.m. on the opening day of free agency, the Miami Dolphins were arranging to meet with linebacker Karlos Dansby, the New York Jets were burning the phone lines and the New England Patriots were finalizing a deal to bring back a franchise nose tackle.


I asked Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix what he was doing at that moment.

"Sleep," he said Monday while taking a break from the NFL owners meetings at the Ritz-Carlton Orlando Grande Lakes. "They asked me if I was going to be there, I said 'Hell, no. I ain't going to be there. I'm going to bed," Tim Graham, ESPN, March 22.

I saw J.P. Losman last night. Seriously, I was out meeting with some soccer pals at an Elmwood watering hole when the former Bills quarterback walked in and grabbed some grub with the bar's owner, a mutual friend.

A few hours later, I find myself making a connection between the random sighting of a failed Buffalo Bills experiment and the aforementioned quote from the team's current general manager.

We have a love/hate relationship with honesty in sports, but the truth of the matter is that it's whether you're good or bad that makes a legend or a laughingstock. When Mark Messier guaranteed a win and delivered with a hat trick, he was "gutsy." When Matt Hasselbeck said, "We want the ball and we're going to score," and was subsequently picked off, he was a punch line.

Right now, the jury's out on Nix. He's already got a couple refreshing and borderline hilarious quotes. "I've never been accused of being the smartest guy in the room" and "Hell, no. I'm going to bed." They are down-to-Earth and don't reek of football-speak, which is great.

But all it will take is a poor draft decision or even a Gailey coaching misfire, and Nix turns into the bumbling hick that can't do anything right.

That's where Losman comes in. If No. 7 was a difference maker, his " 'There is no try, only do,' by the famous Yoda," comments would put him into that "quirky, but likeable" category with Joe Namath, or Manny Ramirez. Instead, he wasn't very good at all, and became the "drum-playing, Yoda-quoting surfer dude" run out-of-town. If Marv Levy was a horrible coach, he'd be the "weird old man who always talks about American history."

That's all I can think about right now. If you're good, you can darn near do whatever you want. Look at Ben Roethlisberger. Marshawn Lynch was villified for avoiding the police after an alleged hit and run. Roethlisberger isn't catching nearly as much flak for an alleged assault against a 20-year-old girl. Some will say it's racial, and maybe it is, but the truth is Roethlisberger's wins aren't hurting him.

Boring guys have failed here, too. The book's not closed on Trent Edwards, but both he and boss DIck Jauron did a fine job of helping paint dry during press conferences. Both were also criticized for that lack of emotion and fire. To be honest, if someone's going to fail, I prefer them to be more entertaining and vocal, but if the Bills had gone 11-5 last year, I would've had no complaints about any fire in anybody's proverbial bellies.

For now, I'm going to love the up-front nature of our two front office folks, and I'll probably continue to long after they've worn out their welcome, if in fact they do.

ESPN's Tim Graham: "Is your opening-day quarterback on the roster?"

Nix: "I have no idea. I really don't know. I know that's what we got now, and it's open. [Bills head coach Chan Gailey has] made that clear. We're going to see who comes out. The fact that those are the three guys we got, we like all three of them, all of them got redeeming qualities, but if something else comes available, we might add a fourth to the mix. I don't know."

He doesn't claim to have all the answers. Let's just hope he does.

Email: nick@wgr550.com
Thursday, March 4, 2010

Grading the Trading, 2010

(WGR 550) -- Another year, another trade deadline in the NHL, and this was one of the worst. Not for Buffalo, but for hype. Three relatively big names -- Ilya Kovalchuk, Dion Phaneuf and Olli Jokinen -- were shipped almost a full month or more before the deadline, and no real surprises came out of the blue.

But that doesn't really matter in the long run as much as who got better and who got worse. Let's take a look, starting with our hometown team.

Buffalo -- Did Darcy Regier have a world-beating deadline day? No, but he had his best since the lock-out, and it should work on some level for the Sabres. Clarke MacArthur was a half-effort guy who looked like one of two players on a given game night. One night, he'd be a dynamic power forward, checking and digging the puck away from the wall to lug it to the front of the net. On most nights, however, he looked like the guy who was benched during his rookie call-up for lack of heart and commitment to the hockey Lindy Ruff wants played. Look at his game logs over the last few seasons: an awful lot of "five goals in seven games" followed by elongated winter vacations. Good riddance. Have fun with Chris Thorburn and Maxim Afinogenov in Atlanta, and then trying to get paid like a 20-goal scorer this offseason. We'll take the third and fourth round picks.

In Raffi Torres, they have a left wing who really cares about hockey whose biggest problem is injury. He's 28-years-old and a former No. 5 overall pick of the Islanders. This is the healthiest he's been since 2006-07, missing 31 games last year and 52 the previous season. His season-high for goals was in the post-lockout year of 2005-06, when he notched 27 goals. He's got a look at topping that figure this year. He's not a super tall guy -- 6'0" -- but he plays wide. As a left wing, he'll provide another body for the front of the net. If Ruff wants to break up Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy, you could see Roy with Torres and Vanek with Connolly.

More importantly, did Darcy Regier have to call Raffi on his Bananaphone?

Maybe the biggest boon to the Sabres is no longer carrying a ridiculous eight defensemen. They would've likely called up Tyler Ennis with Paul Gaustad hurt, but the diminutive first-round pick suffered a concussion Sunday night after being cross-checked in the head by Albany's Jay Harrison. He's out through at least the weekend. So, it's likely Nathan Gerbe will have a chance to convince Regier that sending Adam Mair to Portland is a solid idea by the time Goose is back. It would be interesting to see this line-up on Friday against Philadelphia:

Vanek-Connolly-Pominville
Torres-Roy-Stafford
Hecht-Gerbe-Grier
Ellis-Kennedy-Kaleta

That doesn't serve Kennedy all-that-well, but he's struggling right now and maybe a diminished role can help him focus on the little things. It would also be awesome if Jason Pominville could figure out that whole shooting problem, because he is working himself into great scoring spots.

You have to wonder if Brian Burke flat-out wasn't interested in dealing within the division, because the Sabres almost certainly could've put together a better package than Matt Jones, a fifth and a seventh in exchange for Lee Stempniak, who went to Phoenix. Then again, maybe the Sabres don't like Stempniak. Buffalo could've used a power-play quarterback, but maybe they'd just benefit from just benching their captain, who is struggling as badly as a defenseman can. He's forcing the issue not just with passes, but with stickhandling.

Regier also has a look at turning the third and fourth round picks from the MacArthur deal into something better, even if it's just moving up in the draft. GRADE: B-

THE REST OF THE EAST

1. WASHINGTON
IN- Joe Corvo, Milan Jurcina, Eric Belanger, Scott Walker
OUT- Brian Pothier, Oskar Osala, second-round pick in 2011, second, sixth and seventh-round picks in 2010

Walker's cooked -- picture Adam Mair with a better history -- but give Washington credit for giving up their 2010 draft for defensive depth, even if Jurcina is hurt for a while. Belanger is a nice center with 41 points this year... a very solid "under-the-radar" pick-up. The Caps knew they had to get bigger and deeper if they wanted to win a Cup, and they are going for it. Good work. GRADE: A

2. NEW JERSEY
IN- Ilya Kovalchuk, Anssi Salmela, Martin Skoula
OUT- Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier, first-round and fifth-round pick

Still hate the Kovalchuk move for a franchise, but they are sticking their necks out there for this year, as Martin Brodeur isn't getting any younger. Their power play is lethal with Zach Parise and Kovalchuk leading the charge. GRADE: B

3. OTTAWA
IN- Matt Cullen, Andy Sutton
OUT- Alexandre Picard, two second-round picks

A quote from Senators GM Bryan Murray that you'd love to read from Regier:

“I don’t know that the amateur (scouting) guys are real happy with me at the moment but we have a fairly decent hockey team that is competitive and I wanted to give them every chance they deserved come playoff time—if we get there—and I think we’ve sent the message to the players now that we care, we want to win, we’re going to help them in any way we can and this is the way we can help them.”

Cullen, as I typed here, is a brilliant addition, and one that would've behooved the Sabres. Give Murray a lot of credit here. The Senators are the front-runners to win the division and avoid Washington for a couple rounds if possible. I was wrong about the Senators to start this season. The Heatley trade was a mutually-beneficial one, though I'm still not sure how. GRADE: A

4. PITTSBURGH
IN- Alex Ponikarovsky, Jordan Leopold, sixth-round pick
OUT- Martin Skoula, Luca Caputi, Chris Peluso, second-round pick

Pittsburgh wants to win a Stanley Cup. They already have several. They also have better players than the Sabres, and went after talent. Ponikarovsky could've helped Buffalo, but as stated above, who knows if Burke was willing to deal in division. Leopold doesn't "wow" me, but he's an okay addition. They gave up nearly nothing. GRADE: B+

5. BUFFALO

6. PHILADELPHIA
IN- No one
OUT- No one

I'm very happy the Flyers front office thinks Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher are the killer combo to backstop a team to a Cup... just like Tommy Salo, Garth Snow, Antero Niittymaki, Robert Esche, Jeff Hackett, Sean Burke and Roman Cechmanek. It's not like Tomas Vokoun, Marty Turco and maybe even Carey Price were more or less openly available.Seriously, good work. Really, guys, keep at it. Love the throwback jerseys. GRADE: F

7. MONTREAL
IN- Aaron Palushaj, Dominic Moore
OUT- Matt D'Agostini, second-round pick in 2011

I truly believe not doing much can work for Montreal. They are still coming together from their summer of crazy moves, and it's happening quicker than it did for the Lightning last year. With Andrei Markov and Brian Gionta missing a healthy portion of the schedule, the Habs would be higher up in the Eastern standings had they not lost two prominent players. Look out. GRADE: B

8. BOSTON
IN- Dennis Seidenberg, Matt Bartkowski, fourth-round pick in 2011
OUT- Derek Morris, Craig Weller, Byron Bitz, second-round pick in 2010

Morris has become one of those oft-shipped, overhyped defensemen. I can remember hearing about him being the next big thing while I was still in high school. Really, the Bruins shipped out Bitz, Morris and a second-rounder for Dennis Seidenberg. They got better while off-loading salary. A nice move, but nothing that'll catapult them to the top. Holding onto Blake Wheeler was probably smarter than what they would've received in return, and Wheeler is just an RFA when all is said and done. GRADE: B

9. NY RANGERS
IN- Kris Newbury, Anders Eriksson
OUT- Jordan Owens, Miika Wiikman, seventh-round pick

New York isn't winning the Cup this year, so it's a good thing they didn't mortgage their extremely-deep, highly-rated farm system for an ill-fated run. I love the idea of Sather letting guys like Michael Del Zotto, Marc Staal and company learn from trying to do it themselves rather than bringing in Dan Hamhuis to steal valuable ice time. The Olli Jokinen trade is still a head-scratcher, but they rid themselves of Ales Kotalik. GRADE: C

10. ATLANTA
IN- Clarke MacArthur, Chris Chelios, Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier, first-round pick
OUT- Ilya Kovalchuk, Anssi Salmela, third and fourth-round picks

If they somehow make the playoffs off this Kovalchuk trade, I'll take back a lot of what I said about Don Waddell. The Atlanta general manager had offered Kovalchuk $100 million to stay, and he said, "No, thanks." Then, Waddell improved his team. If you're an Atlanta fan, you're thinking you got a young 20-ish goal scorer in MacArthur for third-and-fourth round picks. You'll learn. Chelios is cheap and -- believe it or not -- will provide some value for that room as it tries to defy the odds and beat out Boston, Tampa and the Rangers. GRADE: A-

11. TAMPA BAY
IN- Teddy Purcell, third-round pick
OUT- Jeff Halpern

Got rid of an old, solid face-off guy for a young guy who hasn't lived up to the hype and a third-rounder. Could've they have done more? Sure, but I have a feeling the Lightning are just hitting their stride, and most if not all Sabres fans would deal their Top-Six for Tampa's Top Four of Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Ryan Malone. Just saying. GRADE: C

In summation... giving out grades is kind of silly for some of these teams who did little, but I'm grading what they did to improve their teams, and some of these teams are better for not giving anything up. Here's how I think the standings shake out come April 11:

1. Washington
2. Pittsburgh
3. Ottawa
4. New Jersey
5. Philadelphia
6. Buffalo
7. Montreal
8. Tampa Bay
9. Boston
10. NY Rangers
11. Atlanta
12. NY Islanders
13. Carolina
14. Florida
15. Toronto

Yep, Sabres and Senators and the first-round. Sweet.

Email: nick@wgr550.com
Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Crosby's Gold Hurts Pittsburgh... Seriously

Apology: This has nothing to do with the trade deadline, but I've got the shakes waiting for my 11 a.m. show (not to mention the 3 p.m. deadline), so I wanted to get these thoughts out of my system. Thanks. Follow me all deadline day on my Twitter page.

(WGR 550) -- It won't be this year, and it won't be next, but there's one thing I can guarantee when it comes to Sid the Kid's future in Pittsburgh.

He won't spend the entire prime of his career there.

At age 22, Sidney Crosby has a Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh and the most important hockey goal in Canadian history (at the least, it's tied with Paul Henderson's 1972 goal in the Summit Series, which happened when I was negative-10, so you know I know what I'm talking about). He makes $8.7 million-per-season, and will do everything short of breaking Wayne Gretzky's scoring record by the time he's done in hockey. He's that good.

But standing there, knowing Crosby was looking across the ice as Ryan Miller got a standing ovation from the Pittsburgh crowd, his Pittsburgh crowd, something occured to me. There's one thing Crosby can't do in Western PA.

Bring a Cup to Canada.

It's been 17 years since a Canadian team lifted Lord Stanley's hardware, and our neighbors to the North had three-straight Bills-esque looks at it a few years back. With each campaign, the nation awkwardly embraced its rivals. In 2004, many Oilers and Canucks fans cheered on the Flames versus the Lightning. The next year, Flames fans held barf bags while barking, "Go Oilers." In 2006, Leafs and Habs fans went the way of Ottawa. All for nought.

So, while it's years down the line, I wanted to put it on record. Whether it's Brian Burke over the summer or someone in Vancouver come 2013, Sid the Kid is going to want to come to Canada. The kid's been an immature player who I can't stand -- a punch to the you-know-what from behind is on his resume -- but he's going to want to pull the reverse Gretzky, leaving a legacy in the States to try and build a bigger one up North. It could happen even sooner if he snags a Cup with a loaded Pens squad this year (Proactive GMs... they exist).

And it'll be awesome.

Email: nick@wgr550.com
Tuesday, March 2, 2010

So you wanna make a deal?

(WGR 550) -- With the clock creeping toward Wednesday's 3 p.m. NHL trade deadline, it's time to evaluate Darcy Regier's pieces before you even worry about "who's out there?"

There are a few things to consider about the Sabres:

1) They need to free up some money in almost any scenario that brings in a solid player. Not every player is an offensive defenseman with a $1.7 cap hit and $381k remaining salary like Jordan Leopold (who was traded from Florida to Pittsburgh at the deadline and could justifiably be labeled a drifter).

The Sabres have $1.828 million in cap space. Keep this in mind any time you're drawing up a deal.

2) Will Darcy Regier do anything out of the ordinary? If he wanted to, how hamstrung would he be by the rosters and the dollar signs/years associated with each player.

Could the team re-up with soon-to-be unrestricted free agents Henrik Tallinder, Mike Grier or Toni Lydman, or are they pieces that could free up space to bring in a guy?

3) Keep in mind contract statuses

Sabres cap hits with year contract expires in parenthesis (according to nhlnumbers.com):
Thomas Vanek -- 7.143 (2013-14)
Jason Pominville -- 5.3 (2013-14)
Tim Connolly -- 4.5 (2010-11)
Derek Roy -- 4.0 (2012-13)
Jochen Hecht -- 3.525 (2011-12)
Craig Rivet -- 3.5 (2010-11)
Henrik Tallinder -- 2.875 (UFA)
Toni Lydman -- 2.562 (UFA)
Paul Gaustad -- 2.3 (2011-12)
Drew Stafford -- 1.9 (2010-11)
Steve Montador -- 1.55 (2010-11)
Clarke MacArthur -- 1.4 (RFA)
Tyler Myers 1.3 -- (2011-12)
Mike Grier 1.2 -- (UFA)
Patrick Lalime 1 -- (UFA)
Andrej Sekera 1 -- (2010-11)
Chris Butler 850k -- (2010-11)
Nathan Paetsch 850k -- (UFA)
Tim Kennedy 850k -- (RFA)
Adam Mair 758k -- (UFA)
Patrick Kaleta 514k -- (RFA)
Matt Ellis 500k -- (UFA)

4) What would call-ups cost in a 2-for-1 deal, and which players are signed long-term? Those are other factors when you're drawing up your deal. Nathan Gerbe and Tyler Ennis seem destined for next year's opening night roster, while the Sabres have just 13 players under contract for next season, and 10 free agents (three restricted, seven unrestricted).

5) Forget the future, does it actually make your team better now? Would moving a defenseman to the bench and losing Clarke MacArthur be better than having them around? Or would the team be better for the stretch drive with Dam Hamhuis and Gerbe/ Ennis in their place?

Now feel free to construct something using other teams rosters and their hits (again, nhlnumbers.com is a useful tool here. Don't go thinking Lecavalier for Paetsch and next year's draft will fly): nick@wgr550.com
Monday, March 1, 2010

Metallic Potato Chips: A look back at the 2010 Olympics

(WGR 550) It's been less than 12 hours since the Winter Olympics came to a close, and I can't remember a more complete one. Granted, I'm 28. Even after the debacle that was NBC's "showcasing" of live sports -- I understand that not everyone got to tear through live sports on MSNBC and CNBC during the weekday afternoons -- there were so many memorable moments that I'm not sure I'm all caught up on all the best stories.

Consider this: I didn't watch a second of Apollo Anton Soulpatch and also missed out on Joannie Rochette's emotional triumph in figure skating after the sudden death of her mother, and I'm still stunned at how much I enjoyed the Winter Games. Admittedly, I don't care much for the summer events, but there is no question this is in my Top Two with Albertville in 1992 (or as I'll remember them, the Ray LeBlanc Olympics).

You had Lindsey Vonn's bruised-shin medal run and Shaun White's clear-outclassing of every other snowboarder. There were Norway's curling pants, Alexandre Bilodeau's Canadian gold in moguls and Bode Miller's metamorphosis from world-class ugly American in Torino to resurgent skiing star. Some of the most polite and offbeat people on Earth (Canadians) took a ton of gold medals and ratcheted national enthusiasm to near-record heights.

Plus, I'm pretty sure Macgyver captained the aforementioned Norwegian curling team, while Vizzini from "The Princess Bride" skipped Canada.

Before this weekend, Kevin Martin was a guy the Sacramento Kings traded. Now, Kevin Martin is a shiny-domed caucasian curler who skipped the Canadian curlers to a home turf gold medal.

Of course, this is all riding shotgun to the hockey tournament. Some of my favorite young hockey players became some of my favorite hockey players period: Dustin Brown, David Backes, Zach Parise, Bobby Ryan... I could go on for hours. They stood toe-to-toe (and out-scored) with the most talented hockey team ever assembled, and pushed them right to the limit. Yes, the host nation took the gold potato chips and we grabbed the silver, but it was a blast.

And when it was done, I felt great for Canada. Not the Canada that showed up in the comments section of my column, trash-talking like they never opened a Tim Horton's south of the St. Lawrence, but the Canada that wore red everywhere, sang their anthem like I wish we would and put forth an image that made me want to book a trip to British Columbia. That might be a bigger upset than the States performance in hockey, because pictures of nature and mostly B-list or 1980s celebrities convinced me to think about shifting my vacation plans. Alex P. Keaton, the girl from "Mannequin" and Van Wilder joined Steve Nash in that ad. Wow.

Good looks, Canada. I still love ya.

Email: nick@wgr550.com

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Nick Mendola
Buffalo people know how to eat, and Buffalo people know how to have a good time.
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