Thursday, April 16, 2009

NHL First-round Playoff Preview

The year was 2006, and the mighty Detroit Red Wings cake-walked into the West's No. 1 seed, while the Edmonton Oilers bickered and barely broke into the post-season. Pundits, included myself, dismissed the Oilers as one-and-done.

Count me among the wrong there, as the Oilers pulled off a stunning run to the Stanley Cup Finals. In fact, had they not lost No. 1 backstop Dwayne Roloson to an MCL injury in Game One of their series with the Hurricanes, they may have hoisted their first Cup since Jari Kurri and Mark Messier won a Gretzky-less Cup in 1991.

So why the basic history lesson? Because an eight seed is about to make some noise.

ROUND ONE:

Eastern Conference:

No. 1 Boston Bruins vs. No. 8 Montreal Canadiens
I wanted to pick an upset here, but there is too much going in the favor of the Bruins. If the 100th Anniversary was more pressure than motivation during the regular season, I find it hard to believe Carey Price and the boys will rise to the occasion now, though my gut tells me differently, so I'll say it goes one less game than last year, when the seeds were reversed.
Bruins in six.

No. 2 Washington Capitals vs. No. 7 New York Rangers
The Rangers were better in Game One, and "stole home ice" from the Caps, but Washington still has enough to top the Blueshirts. It'll be interesting to see if Chris Drury's unannounced injury hampers more than one game. The only factor that could tilt the scales is Henrik Lundqvist, but it'll be a litle too much Alexander Ovechkin and Mike Green in this series. Plus, the NHL wants it that way.
Capitals in six.

No. 3 New Jersey Devils vs. No. 6 Carolina Hurricanes
It's generally defense over offense in the post-season, and this series is no exception. The Hurricanes may be hot enough to take a home game, maybe two, but the Devils are built to handle the East this year.
Devils in five.

No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Flyers
It appears I'm going with the chalk in the East, but I've been talking up Pittsburgh since they were stationed in tenth. Remember what I wrote when the Penguins scooped up Bill Guerin at the deadline?


Pittsburgh
Gets: Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, Andy Wozniewski, prospect
Gives Up: Ryan Whitney, Danny Richmond, conditional pick

--- If the Pens made the playoffs with the Kunitz deal, they earned the No. 6 seed with the Guerin pick-up. This team is very dangerous, if only because the NHL would love to fix a round for them. Did I type that? Good.
GRADE: A-

Yeah, twelve points in 17 regular season games, and the exclamation point on Game One with a third period fight with Braydon Coburn. The playoffs are fun. Penguins in five.

Western Conference:

No. 1 San Jose Sharks vs. No. 8 Anaheim Ducks
If Emilio Estevez can trick Team Iceland into sneaking the knuckle-puck kid into goalie pads during a TV time-out of a nationally-televised Junior Goodwill Games, then a team full of Cup winners can top of team of reputed chokers. Fair or not, Joe Thornton and the boys have struggled to live up to expectations, and I expect Anaheim's ageless Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer to shine one more time. Two good goaltenders for the Ducks give them some options moving forward, and I expect Anaheim to make a serious run.
Ducks in six.

No. 2 Detroit Red Wings vs. No. 7 Columbus Blue Jackets
Can Steve Mason find enough magic in the Columbus nights to upend the champs? I don't think so, but this one will be very, very tight. Look for Detroit to eek by on their defensive system and moxie, a la New Jersey, but the Wings and Jackets will go the distance. This series could be Rick Nash's official coming-out party.
Red Wings in seven.

No. 3 Vancouver Canucks vs. No. 6 St. Louis Blues
The Canucks won four-straight, including a win over the Flames, to clinch their division and the right to take on St. Louis, the least-threatening of the NHL playoff teams. As Paul Hamilton says, "The playoffs are a process," and the Blues are new here. Roberto Luongo leads the first round's only sweep.
Canucks in four.

No. 4 Chicago Blackhawks vs. No. 5 Calgary Flames
The Flames may be reeling, but that may even out as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews get their first taste of the post-season. I expect Brian Campbell to have a dynamite series, and be the difference maker against Miikka Kiprusoff and a very challenging Calgary line-up. Olli Jokinen has been an offensive spark plug since coming to Calgary from Phoenix, but remains an intense defensive liability. Home-ice makes the difference, especially with Martin Havlat in an 81-game-77-point-knock-on-wood-remarkably-injury-free campaign.
Blackhawks in six

AWARDS:

First-round MVP: Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit
First-round Goat: Jonathan Cheechoo, San Jose
Best beard: (three-way-tie): Selanne, Kiprusoff, Thornton

Email: nick@wgr550.com

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