We spend an awful lot of time trying to negotiate with our gut feelings.

Whether it's wanting the Bills to beat the Saints, but feeling like they won't, or knowing you're going to eat too much for dinner, but telling yourself you won't, we have to fight our instincts on occasion.

I'm hoping to avoid that battle when it comes to the 2009-10 Buffalo Sabres. I feel like they are one of the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference, and should be a playoff team. In fact, my hockey gut tells me that perhaps a little more is on the slate for this season, but we'll worry about an actual prediction, as well as an entire Eastern Conference outlook, later in this space.

Alas, let's begin with the negative, and the two things that really concern me heading into this campaign, which begins at 7 p.m. Saturday night at HSBC Arena against Montreal (I'll be broadcasting live from Benchwarmers in the Cobblestone District from 2-4 p.m. Come say hello)

One) A huge potential built-in excuse

Let's start with numero uno, which is a bit about organizational semantics, but follow me. I believe that's it's absolutely true that with a healthy Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller, the Sabres are able to grab a hold of one of the final three playoff spots last season (Buffalo finished two points back of Montreal for slot No. 8 in the East).

Even though Patrick Lalime wasn't garbage and Vanek can go into cold stretches, it's just hard to imagine the 3-5-1 record with Vanek doesn't look better with him. The Sabres were blanked twice, by the Isles and Canes, and also scored just one goal, against the Canes and Senators, during that time. Without Miller, the Sabres were 4-7-2. In four of those losses, they scored three or more goals. You think you could find two or three points in there to pull ahead of Montreal?

The problem with this rationale isn't in its accuracy, it's that I'd prefer the Sabres' brass not say it out loud. Sure, you want your team to be mentally stronger -- and bringing in Steve Montador and Mike Grier does address that -- but if Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff were saying it out loud, then the players were hearing it. While they may not adopt it, it's scary to think that the players could recall that sentiment if Buffalo goes through a similar injury stretch this season. Remember, we didn't hear about injuries when the team was down to Mark Mancari during the stretch run three years back.

Two) Management falling in love with their own

The Sabres signed a bevy of free agents with NHL experience this year. While there's certainly a reason guys like Cody McCormick, Jeff Cowan, Brad Larsen and Joe DiPenta didn't end up with one-way contracts on the Red Wings, I was very surprised to see McCormick, or maybe even Cowan, sent through waivers.

I know the league doesn't have the need for fighters as it once did, but as Montreal and Toronto proved last night, this division does. McCormick is a tough nut who is coming off his best NHL campaign (12 pts. and 91 PIM in 55 games), while Cowan is strictly a bruiser who was less offensive productive than Andrew Peters last year. The thing is, both these guys have problems with their teeth on account of other people's fists, and I'm not sure losing Steve Montador, Craig Rivet, Adam Mair or Paul Gaustad for five minutes is a better idea.

What I'm surprised to see, and nothing against the guy, is Nathan Paetsch staying on as defenseman No. 8. If the rationale is they want to see Tyler Myers play nine games and then go down, we could talk about that, but if it's just "we don't want to lose him on waivers," it feels a little less sound, especially with Mike Weber and a number of other prospects/veterans down on the farm.

By having Paetsch as forward No. 13, it also feels like you might be making Clarke MacArthur a little too comfotable coming off a second-straight year where his effort disappeared for stretches. Remember, Dan Paille had a 19-goal year two years ago, and Paille's even plus/minus rating was four numbers better than MacArthur's minus-4.

But, Nick, I thought you picked the Sabres to go to the playoffs...

I did, I just wanted to go negatives first before some folks ripped me apart for some ridiculous "company line" reason when I honestly believe they'll make the playoffs.

Let's start with the Northeast Division. Jeremy White is right when he says the Leafs are going to be a tough team to play, but its because they're scrappy, not on account of their talent. Toronto is probably a year away from contending for a playoff spot, but may not find their way to the division dumpster because Ottawa has hemorrhaged talent for a couple years.

Those out there thinking the Senators got the better of the Heatley-to-San Jose deal are trying way too hard. Jonathan Cheechoo's 56-goal campaign came in the year after the lockout, and his numbers have declined with the league's move back to clutch-and-grab. Milan Michalek is a solid 20-goal scorer who will help the Senators power play, but is a rich man's Ales Kotalik. Ottawa also received a second-round pick, but Heatley forcing their hand -- while a jerk move -- really hurt them. And, oh yeah, have fun with the Alex Kovalev signing.

So there's two teams below Buffalo, and toss the Islanders and Thrashers under the bus as well. While four of the teams in the Atlantic would have a shot at winning the Northeast, that division will again beat itself up and keep point total 5-8 points lower than they'd be somewhere else.

Which brings us to the teams the Sabres will be battling with for the final few playoff spots: Tampa, the Rangers, Montreal and Carolina.

The Lightning are a year away, and simply do not have the forward depth. They'd need superhuman efforts from Mike Smith, Vinny Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos. They've got them before, so don't count them out, but I don't think they're a playoff team.

The Rangers are an intriguing squad. Their gamble on Marian Gaborik finally freed from the clutches of the Wild's defensive system is a good one, but his health is on a Tim Connolly level of consistency. New York finally has its No. 1 defensive pairing of the future on the big club, in Marc Staal and Michael del Zotto, but there will be more growing pains than allowable for a playoff team.

Montreal and Buffalo will contend for second place in the Northeast, and the Habs actually have a shot at the division if their team comes together through the addition-by-subtraction of Kovalev. Montreal is going to have a time finding its identity and, for a veteran club, will surprisingly have to go through "the process" that Paul Hamilton always talks about. Whoever wins the season series between the Habs and Sabres will find its way ahead of the other, and Carey Price will be the key there.

The Hurricanes are a well-coached team that won't go away. If Rod Brind'Amour can actually play center this year instead of the 51 points and minus-23 he puked up last year, it'll go a long ways for the Canes. If he's all of the 39 years he's looked, Carolina is in capital-T Trouble.

Buffalo has its question marks, too, but the Sabres are essentially adding two actual hockey players that last year were ghosts. Jason Pominville is going to have a much better season, guaranteed. Why? Because his struggles were more about not shooting the puck in gaping goal mouths, something you can practice in the offseason.

Also, last year was Jochen Hecht's worst since the lockout, and his down numbers look like an aberration, even at age 32. Another key is that I don't bad mouth Toni Lydman at every turn, like many of the folks who email me. Lydman does throw the "brain fart" out there every 10 games or so, but he'll likely be freed from Henrik Tallinder. Lydman posted an even plus/minus rating even with all the time he spent on the ice with Tallinder.

Buffalo also has a Top-10 goal scorer, playmaker and goaltender, two of whom you could argue are Top-5 talents. Thomas Vanek is a finisher, and watch Ryan Miller's numbers rise with a stronger, steadier defense.

The big questions, before we get to the Eastern Conference order, is whether MacArthur can play at a high-level and whether Tim Kennedy is ready for the big show. Kennedy scored 67 points in 73 games with the Portland Pirates last year.

Without further ado...

1. Washington
2. Philadelphia
3. Boston
4. Pittsburgh
5. New Jersey
6. Buffalo
7. Montreal
8. Carolina
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9. NY Rangers
10. Tampa Bay
11. Toronto
12. Ottawa
13. Atlanta
14. Florida
15. NY Islanders

Email: nick@wgr550.com