Thursday, February 4, 2010

Sabres second-third report card

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(WGR 550) -- Unfortunately, 82 isn't divisible by three, so 55 games is as close to two-thirds of the way through the Sabres season as you can get (besides 54). Even after back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Ottawa, should we be having a positive discussion about this team?

Yes, but not without it's share of negatives. Every team goes through rough stretches, but Buffalo is just 4-5-3 since Jan. 9, a stretch that does include a seven-game road swing. 16-7-5 overall for the second-third, which is slightly better than how they started: 16-9-2. Here's what I wrote about in the intro to the first-third report card:

"So here's the harsh truth: The Buffalo Sabres are a good hockey club that needs two things -- some tough love and another scorer."

Seems like they're still in the same spot, eh?

SABRES FIRST-THIRD REPORT CARD -- PART I -- GOALTENDING -- GRADE: A
(FIRST-THIRD GRADE: A-)

-- Ryan Miller's numbers have dipped very slightly since the first-third of the season -- GAA from 1.90 to 2.12 and save percentage from .935 to .932 -- but he's still having an outstanding campaign. One of the amazing fun facts of the campaign is that Miller is better when he gets more work (in a single game). In contests he's faced more than 40 shots, he's 3-0-1, including Jan. 8's 3-2 win over Toronto, when he stopped 48 of 50.

You really have to wonder where would this team be without him. Once you consider that, you also have to look at who else in the league has been as valuable to their team. Henrik Sedin may have a leg-up in the race despite Roberto Luongo being his tender, but Martin Brodeur has benefited more from the increased freakish play of Zach Parise than anything of his own doing. Devils' goalies have faced the second-fewest shots in the league, while Sabres' netminders have looked at the fifth-most. That's a difference of 217 shots.

Patrick Lalime has been better after an awful first-third. He's 3-1-2 since then and has only allowed more than three goals once. Clearly, that's the reason he's played twice as often in the second-third of the season. His only truly poor performance was his last one - four goals allowed in 10 minutes at Anaheim. That's a goals against average of 23.00 if you're keeping score at home.

By the way, I'll say it again: I am not scared of the Olympics taking a major toll on Miller.

PART II -- DEFENSEMEN -- C+
(FIRST-THIRD GRADE: B-)
-- Things are kind of a mess right now, but I'll try and keep-in-mind that this report card goes over 28 games. A bunch of guys are in a really bad way right now. You can't bench a captain, but Craig Rivet is having a lot of trouble. Splitting up Rivet and Chris Butler could be a damning look for one of them, as the pairing has been just brutal. Rivet's on pace for his fewest points since 2003-04, and is a minus-player for the first time in several seasons. He has one goal and three assists in the second-third, and rates a minus-2.

Butler has seen his offensive game grow by leaps and bounds, but it's come at the expense of defense. From a plus-12 on a bad team last year to a minus-11 on one of the league's best sides so far in 2009-10. Explain that. Butler has regressed defensively, but we have to be careful when evaluating young defensemen from here-on-in. It's extremely rare for a young kid to have a Tyler Myers start to his career. Butler has a goal and 8 assists since coming back from injury on Dec. 27, during which time he's rated a minus-5, which is actually better than the start of the season. That's very hard to believe.

Toni Lydman seems a target for message board posters around here, but has been pretty good. As always, he's prone to the occasional puck gaffe or putting himself way out-of-position to make a hit. He's a plus for the second-third, but a minus-8 in his last five games. Former linemate Henrik Tallinder has officially shaken off the cobwebs from the injury woes that had him playing meek for two years. You'll have to watch closely, but Tallinder is playing as physical as ever before, as indicated by his rough-ride of Daniel Alfredsson in the third period of last night's contest.

I'm not sure what else you can say about Tyler Myers, but if you're not glowing about the 20-year-old Calder hopeful, than you're trying too hard. Not only that, but the manchild did the right thing in going after Chris Phillips last night when his teammates -- besides Tim Kennedy -- just watched. The best part? Myers didn't see the hit. He just knew what he needed to do.

Steve Montador is struggling right now, but on the whole has been pretty good. As a friend put it, "He needs to realize he's not Mike Green." That's more harsh than I'd put it, but the Sabres' increased focus on defensive contribution has costs Montador a little bit. He has two goals and seven assists in the second-third, which may surprise some people, likely because his plus/minus over the last few weeks is minus-6. I don't see why he's getting benched twice in a week for lesser crimes than Rivet and Butler, but I'll trust that Ruff knows what he's doing with the blueliners.

Andrej Sekera is still a hit-or-miss player with more offensive upside than defensive promise, but I'd like to see him a bit more. Nathan Paetsch works in the role that he's in, but you have to wonder if he won't be tossed-in to sweeten up a deadline deal, provided the Sabres make one.

PART III - OFFENSE - B
(FIRST-THIRD GRADE: C)
-- Yes, they've been a full letter better.

Buffalo finished the first-third of the year in the league's bottom 10 in goals-per-game. Not good. Now, they rank No. 12 in the league, which would put them somewhere in the top 10 for the second-third (I am not doing the math for every team in the league).

Let's start with the elephant in the crease that has been Thomas Vanek. The Sabres best forward registered a paltry eight goals and 10 assists through the first-third of the season, so how did the second-third go? Nine goals and eight assists. Not much better, though the Austrian does have 10 points in his last 10 games while submitting a plus-1 rating. Hopefully, he's heating up.

Seemingly against all odds, Tim Connolly has played in all 55 games this year, and recently has been showing up for all of them. The wildly-talented center has been playing tougher hockey and boasts multiple decent-sized point streaks. His 52 points are just outside the league's Top-20, so I'm going to have to relax on my sensitivity to his play.

The numbers are also on the rise for Jason Pominville, who is second on the team in points. The 27-year-old winger had a solid second-third, with 21 points, eight of which were goals. He's a plus-six during that part of the campaign, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his 15 goals turn into 30 overall after the last 27 games of the regular season.

Derek Roy remains an enigma. Every time you're ready to see him shipped out-of-town for what would be a king's ransom -- given his reputation around the league -- he seems to nab that goal or helper to win you the game. When he's going right, so are the Sabres. It's just that he's not going all-that-right right now. Just one goal, two assists and a minus-4 for Roy since the 7-2 blow-out win over Phoenix

Jochen Hecht is Jochen Hecht, but not the Jochen Hecht of last year, which was awful. He's doing alright. Clarke MacArthur and Drew Stafford fit into the "Roy enigma" mold. One night they are delivering some the biggest hits on the ice -- especially MacArthur -- the next they are falling all over themselves to give the puck away in traffic.

Tim Kennedy has hit the rookie wall, but your concern should only be for this season. Kennedy has had the opposite of a sophomore slump at almost every level he's played, and his grit for a kid his age is doing the Western New York hockey player proud. He just needs to refind his groove. His stats say he's a playmaker, but I'm telling you he can shoot.

Mike Grier has been what the locker room needs, and his play on the ice has been generally quite inspired. I've enjoyed watching him work the boards and gain position on the guy he's battling for the puck with. I'd still like to see Patrick Kaleta fight more, but I'll trade it for his goals. The only difference between the night-in, night-out efforts of Matt Ellis and Adam Mair is that Mair takes a dumb penalty every other game. Center-ice-face-wash last night? In the words of horrible football analysts, "C'mon, Man."

Who have I missed? Ah, Paul Gaustad, who hasn't scored in the new year, but has otherwise been everything the Sabres need. Slap the 'C' on this guy when Rivet leaves town, because "Goose" gives five-on-five effort like a champ. He's a minus-11, seriously, since his return from injury on Dec. 18, which makes me wonder if he isn't still hurting.

PART III - FRONT OFFICE - INC
(FIRST-THIRD GRADE: TBA)
-- We're going from a TBA to an incomplete, because I think the time has come to add a player into the mix. The Sabres need a veteran and a scorer, hopefully both. I've detailed that in other places. If Darcy Regier can get a true power play quarterback to let Craig Rivet focus on defense and Chris Butler play on the second unit only when necessary, that would be great. Again, the time to trade has come. Give the guys more time to gel than the traditional month-or-so after the deadline.

OVERALL GRADE: B+
(FIRST-THIRD GRADE: B)
As I wrote after the first-third, I predicted the Sabres to come in sixth place, so anything higher is gravy to me, though the stakes have been raised by Buffalo essentially playing better hockey in the second-third (until recently). This team is overachieving because of their goaltender and third-and-fourth lines, but the Top-Six are starting to come around. I'd love to see the team makes some changes to its Top Six (It would be very nice for MacArthur or Stafford to become a third-liner), but the more pressing issue is one I didn't have until last night.

You can play tougher overall, which they have all year, but when an Ottawa player throws his shoulder into goaltender's face/chest, everybody's gotta get in on the mix, and only the two youngest kids on the roster did. Good on you, Kennedy and Myers.

Email: nick@wgr550.com

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