Thursday, February 4, 2010

Thought Kovalchuk would return more?

(WGR 550) -- My first thought when I heard that Atlanta had shipped Ilya Kovalchuk (and Anssi Salmela) to New Jersey for Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier and a first-round pick was that the Thrashers had either gotten just enough for their star, or perhaps a little too much.

Atlanta GM Don Waddell certainly did better than the Marian Hossa deal of two deadlines ago, when he picked up Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, enigmatic prospect Angelo Esposito and a first-rounder, but did he get enough for a star who shines a little brighter than the best Hossa in the National Hockey League?

Do I make the deal if I'm New Jersey? I'd need to know the answers to several questions? Is Matt Corrente ready to jump into an NHL defense, or can journeyman Cory Murphy fill the gap left by Oduya? Is there a top-four defenseman on the market that I have the arsenal to acquire? Bergfors -- who has 27 points in his first year -- and Cormier -- who was suspended for the year in his junior league -- are Day One picks, and they've set loose next year's first, too.

It's a very steep price to pay for Kovalchuk, who was swept in his only playoff appearance, putting up a goal and a helper. He is, however, better than a point-per-game player for the Thrashers during his seven-plus NHL seasons, including two fifty-goal campaigns. Can he work in the Devils system? Will they allow him more freedom than the rest of the team? New Jersey isn't exactly the trap machine they were in years past, and the Kovalchuk/Zach Parise power play unit should be filthy (Good filthy).

Also, as I did with the Phaneuf to the Leafs trade, I tried to think of a Sabres equivalent for those who were hoping Buffalo won the "Kovalchuk sweepstakes." It'd have to be a solid player, a first-roundish pick having a solid enough season, a top prospect in the system and a first-round pick.

So, in Buffalo's case, you're probably talking Drew Stafford, Chris Butler, Tyler Ennis and a first-round pick, and we're not talking a locked-up guy like Phaneuf -- Kovalchuk's a rental who just turned down a 12-year, $101 million deal from the Thrashers. I don't make that move.

Perhaps more important, Kovalchuk wasn't coming to Buffalo. It isn't a Darcy Regier move, and it wouldn't matter if it was. Kovalchuk has dissed Lindy Ruff on behalf of Maxim Afinogenov, and if that wasn't enough to deter Kovalchuk, Slava Kozlov probably wasn't signing "Buffalo Girls" to him.

Lastly, if Kovalchuk gets hurt in the Olympics, this deal explodes in the face of New Jersey. Credit where it's due, Eklund of Hockey Buzz brought this salient point up first. Perhaps, New Jersey would've been better served waiting, but patience isn't always a virtue in this market, and we've seen that before in Buffalo.

EDIT NOTE (6:12 a.m.): It was late last night, so I neglected to put out my opinion on the deal. I think it's okay for Atlanta -- considering they are losing their franchise player in every sense of the word -- but New Jersey's made a foolish move. Kovalchuk is an elite offensive talent, but his downsides will be exposed in Newark, where they actually get on television. He was hiding as a sort of fantasy player in Georgia. It'll be a true test for "Kovy" to prove me wrong.

Email: nick@wgr550.com

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